Last Friday, the Brookings Institution and the Inter-American Dialogue co-sponsored "A Conversation with U.S. Ambassadors to the Andean Region." As the title suggests, the panel included U.S. ambassadors to the Andean countries, and the United States' new ambassador to the Organization of American States. However, a perspective on U.S. relations with one Andean country was noticeably absent.

The United States has not had an ambassador in Bolivia since September 2008, when Bolivian President Evo Morales expelled Philip Goldberg and declared him "persona non grata" for meeting with the opposition and allegedly conspiring against the Bolivian government. The United States responded by expelling Bolivian Ambassador to the United States Gustavo Guzmán.

In May 2009, the United States and Bolivia began a dialogue to review and improve bilateral relations, with the goal of exchanging new ambassadors. The assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the time, Thomas Shannon, traveled to La Paz to begin this process. However, the next step in the process was not taken until October 2009 - five months later. During this five month hiatus, the United States decertified Bolivia as a partner in the fight against drugs and refused to extend Andean Trade Preference (ATPDEA) benefits to Bolivia for a second consecutive year - a move which the Andean Information Network said "contrasted sharply with the diplomatic tone of previous negotiations."

The attempt at dialogue resumed in Washington on October 27th, with Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca leading the Bolivian delegation. A State Department press release prior to the meeting read, "The dialogue reflects both countries' commitment to review and improve relations on the basis of mutual respect and shared interests. Key areas of discussion will include cooperation on development, social inclusion and our shared responsibility to combat drug trafficking."

After the meeting, it looked as if Bolivia and the United States were on the fast track to renewed diplomatic relations. The United States and Bolivia announced that they were on the verge of reaching an agreement of "mutual respect." Foreign Minister Choquehuanca said the meeting had resulted in "excellent advances on all subjects" and U.S. Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs María Otero said "we hope to finalize and implement this agreement in the near future." At the culmination of the talks in October, it was suggested that the agreement would be signed at the third round of meetings scheduled for November in La Paz, which would be followed by the repositioning of ambassadors to both countries.

November - a month that saw Bolivia in the runup to presidential elections - came and went without a third round of meetings, a signed agreement of mutual respect, or new ambassadors, and it is unclear when or whether the bilateral dialogue between the two countries will restart. Since October, both countries have expressed a desire to continue a dialogue, though the condition of "mutual respect" for each country's sovereignty seems to be causing a roadblock in negotiations, with Bolivia calling for a change in the United States' attitude toward Bolivian political affairs.

One week after Foreign Minister Choquehuanca traveled to Washington in October, President Morales accused the United States of "fomenting terrorism and narcotrafficking in Colombia in order to justify the military bases," in allusion to the U.S.-Colombia Defense Cooperation Agreement, which grants the United States use of seven Colombian military bases. Later in the month, Bolivian Vice President Álvaro García accused the United States of "political interference," explaining that the United States "continues a policy under the rug, it continues moving political pieces. While it maintains this attitude of political interference (...), while it doesn't change its attitude, this healthy and sovereign distance is the minimum that we can do as a country that respects itself."

President Evo Morales was re-elected in December and the United States congratulated him, declaring that the Obama administration "look(s) forward to working with President Morales and his administration to continue advancing the bilateral dialogue started by our governments earlier this year." Days later, Bolivian Vice President García, in reaction to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's remarks about Iran's interest in countries like Venezuela and Bolivia as being "really a bad idea," sustained that until the United States changes its "colonial attitude in times that there are no longer colonies," the bilateral negotiations would not advance:

When the United States abandons its pretension to impose, to meddle, to tell us what to do and what not to do, when it abandons the patron-like and colonial attitude, and its interference in Bolivian political affairs, in that second that everything is perfect, we are going to sign (the agreeement).

Again in early January, U.S. charge d'affairs John Creamer reiterated the United States' desire to restart the dialogue with Bolivia after Evo Morales' inauguration to a second term on January 22nd. And again, Vice President García said that the dialogue and agreement is contingent on a change in the United States' attitude: "We also are hoping for better relations, but this hoping will not change on the 22nd, the 15th, or the 31st of January. Better relations depend on a change in the attitude of that (the U.S.) government."

President Morales was re-inaugurated on Friday, at a ceremony attended by a U.S. delegation led by Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis and Under Secretary of State María Otero. According to the U.S. Embassy in Bolivia, the delegation "brought a message of friendship from President Barack Obama to President Morales and the Bolivian people" and Under Secretary Otero expressed that "relations between Bolivia and the United States are based on an effort from both countries to work together, to dialogue, to discuss everything with mutual respect and carry us to a broader relationship than we have now."

Though it appears that the United States is eager to continue the bilateral dialogue, Bolivia's call for an improved U.S. attitude toward its policies is not out of line. President Obama promised a new type of partnership - an "equal partnership" based on "mutual respect" - between Latin America and the United States at the Summit of the Americas in April 2009. As Doug Hertzler put it today on the Andean Information Network's blog, "it's time to allow Bolivia to try its own ideas. As Evo Morales begins his second term in office, the U.S. should move forward to reach agreement with Bolivia on respectful relations, transparent aid and a new exchange of ambassadors."

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimel recently released its annual reports on Coca Cultivation in the Andean Region - namely in Peru, Colombia, and Bolivia. This year's surveys, which provide data for 2008 levels of coca cultivation, eradication and seizures, show that the number of hectares in cultivation of coca in Colombia decreased by 18% from 2007-2008, while cultivation in Peru increased by 4.5% and cultivation in Bolivia increased by 6%. Colombia's large decrease in coca cultivation in 2008 follows a substantial increase (27%) in production from 2006-2007, while Peru and Bolivia have both been experiencing a slow but steady climb in coca cultivation over the past few years.

UNODC contends that, since many of Colombia’s remaining coca fields are recently planted, its estimate of tons of cocaine produced in Colombia fell even more sharply, from 600 to 430 tons. As a result, Colombia's percentage share of cocaine in the world market decreased from 60% in 2007 to 51% in 2008. Peru's and Bolivia's shares have both increased as a result of Colombia's decline, resulting in Peru contributing to 36% of world production (up from 29% in 2007) and Bolivia contributing to 13% of world production.

Seizures of cocaine in the three countries have also increased significantly since 2007, with Colombia reporting a 57% increase, Peru a 100% increase and Bolivia a 148% increase.

The increases in the number of hectares under cultivation with coca in Peru and Bolivia could be attributed to failed domestic policies (drug-war hardliners have argued that Bolivia's policies on coca cultivation, which allow 12,000 hectares of cultivation – and, in fact, tolerate a bit more – solely for medicinal and local use, are to blame for Bolivia's increase). However, another contributing factor could be the "balloon effect," a theory that argues that as long as demand is strong, coca cultivation will merely be pushed into new areas as it is squeezed out of existing coca cultivating areas. Therefore, as Colombia more aggressively eradicates coca plants and seizes cocaine and coca paste, the production of coca and cocaine will merely be pushed elsewhere in the Andes.

In support of the "balloon effect" theory, the table above indicates that since 1998, the total coca cultivation in the Andean region has not changed significantly - with 191,000 hectares in cultivation in 1998 compared to 167,600 hectares in 2008, even though cultivation in Colombia has decreased almost 50% since the beginning of Plan Colombia in 1999. Also, the graph below, which shows coca cultivation in the Andean Region since 1988, exemplifies this balloon effect phenomenon. From 1988-1997 Peru was the number one coca cultivator in the region, after which the cultivation of coca moved more prominently into Colombia, leaving this country in the number one spot until today. However, as shown by the graph, Peru is once again starting to catch up with Colombia.

According to press reports, a three-page document issued by the Israeli Foreign Ministry alleges that Bolivia and Venezuela have sold uranium to Iran for use in that country's nuclear program. The document is to be presented by Israeli Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Dani Ayalon at the 39th Regular Session of the OAS which will be held the first week of June in San Pedro Sula, Honduras.

According to Israeli officials the document, which reportedly analyzes the growing relations between Iran and countries in the region, was not meant to be public. Further detail about its content has not been revealed.

The government of right-wing Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, which recently took power in Israel, stated that while it was in no condition to prove the allegations in the document, it is nonetheless concerned by what it views as a "strategic alliance" between Bolivian President Evo Morales, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“Iran is trying to take positions in Latin America, and unfortunately we see a very close cooperation between Ahmadinejad and the radical regime of Hugo Chávez, and this is something that should worry everyone,” stated Ayalon in an interview with Spain’s Efe wire service.

Bolivian Government officials have strenuously denied the accusations and assure that even though their relationship with the Iranian government is growing closer, they do not support Iran’s nuclear program. Bolivian President Evo Morales broke diplomatic relations with Israel in January to protest Israel’s military actions in Gaza.

“If for some reason there is a document issued by any security agency of Israel that has pointed out the existence of any evidence, then we should simply suspect that the Israeli intelligence agencies are suffering from a severe capacity crisis, and for that matter of a crisis in work ethic. If this is so, we should simply declare any Israeli agency an agency of inept and incompetent clowns, for only a clown can imagine such an atrocity,” declared Juan Ramon Quintana, Bolivia’s minister of the presidency.

Luis Alberto Echazu, Bolivian minister of Mining Industries, declared that there was no precise proof of any geological deposits of uranium, much less of its exploitation.

On March 3, 2009, the U.S. House Committee of Foreign Affairs held a hearing to discuss present and future relations with Bolivia. Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL-14) set the tone and focus of the hearing during his opening statement when he asked, “Is there still hope for a better relationship with Bolivia or is Evo Morales bound and determined in the stance that he is in?” Other members of the committee expressed their concern with the government of Morales; Rep. Albio Sires (D-NJ-13) also posed a similar question, “Why would I [a foreign company] invest in a country with all the rhetoric coming out of it?”

Although the witnesses unanimously agreed that relations have deteriorated since the inauguration of Evo Morales in December 2005, they had different opinions on how, when and at what level to resolve them.

Peter DeShazo, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, was pessimistic about the possibility of the U.S. and Bolivia rekindling their relationship in the near future. The United States should be the first to take a step, and through various USAID programs.

Kathryn Ledebur, from Andean Information Network, believes that both governments must express their willingness to work together to repair their relationship. She also stated that both governments should work towards a more bi-lateral relationship with less focus on counter-narcotic policies. Regarding USAID, the amount of aid does not need to be increased, but rather restructured and reviewed by both governments.

Ivan Rebolledo, from Bolivian-American Chamber of Commerce, Inc., began with the statement that “abandoning Bolivia at this point in time would be a serious error”. The U.S. should migrate towards multi-lateral relations with institutions such as EU, UN Office on Drugs and Crime, so that the U.S. can be more neutral, leading to better bi-lateral relations.

Dr. Jaime Daremblum, from the Hudson Institute, expressed his concern that Bolivia has become a “bubbling cauldron” of insecurity due to the division among the Bolivian people. Although U.S. trade preferences are important to many Bolivians, before they are restored, Morales’s government must agree with minimal anti-drug cooperation.

Marcos Iberkleid is the Chief Executive Officer of Ametex, an apparel firm that was a “beacon of hope” for thousands of Bolivians. Located in El Alto, the poorest and fastest-growing city in Bolivia, Ametex provided the 50,000 people who enter the job market every year the rare possibility of a dignified and sustainable job. He testified how the suspension of Bolivia from the ATPA (Andean Trade Preference Act) this past fall has led to massive layoffs and the firm facing the real possibility that it must close completely. The U.S. must reinstate ATPA benefits to Bolivia, in order to prevent people from turning to illegal sectors in order to make a living.

The full statements from each witness and opening statements from the members are available on the Committee on Foreign Affair’s website.

Today, a Bolivian delegation made up of prominent government officials and business leaders is in Washington. They will testify in a public hearing hosted by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) about the economic benefits of the Andean Trade Preferences and Drug Elimination Act (ATPDEA), an arrangement that gives several Bolivian products preferential access to the U.S. market. The Bush administration suspended Bolivia's ATPDEA trade preferences in late September, dealing a potential blow to the country's economy.

The Bolivian delegates are making the case for the U.S. program's importance for alternative development in coca-growing regions, and job creation nationwide. They are also seeking to defend the Bolivian government's counternarcotics program, which the Bush administration, in a September "de-certification" decision, determined does not meet its standard for full cooperation toward anti-drug goals.

The delegation is led by Bolivian Treasury Minister Luis Arce and Vice Minister of Social Defense and Controlled Substances Felipe Cáceres (whose position is similar to that of the U.S. drug czar), and includes the president of the La Paz Chamber of Exporters, Guillermo Poumont, the president of the Confederation of Private Business in Bolivia, Gabriel Babdoub and other business owners who export their products to the United States. Also, the hearing will include video testimony, compiled by the Cochabamba, Bolivia-based Democracy Center, of three Bolivian workers who will be adversely affected by the decision to suspend Bolivia's trade preferences with the United States.

According to the General Manager of the La Paz Chamber of Exporters, Fernando López, "it is important that we clearly demonstrate that Bolivia is carrying out good work in terms of counternarcotics" in addition to showing how ATPDEA is important for the Bolivian economy.

Background:

At the end of September, President Bush announced his plans to suspend Bolivia's trade preferences under the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act due to Bolivia's failure to cooperate fully with the United States's counternarcotics programs, despite Congress' vote to extend ATPDEA preferences to Bolivia for six months. As required by law, the USTR must post the president's announcement in the Federal Register, hold a public hearing on the topic, and accept public comments until the end of the month (a .pdf of the announcement can be found here).

At the end of the month, the Bush Administration and the USTR will take into account the testimonies at the public hearing and formal comments submitted by outside parties, and a final decision will be made as to whether President Bush will maintain his decision to suspend trade preferences to Bolivia or if they will revert to the decision agreed upon by Congress to extend Bolivia's ATPDEA preferences for six months.

As discussed on this blog before, the suspension of trade preferences under ATPDEA will have a detrimental effect on the Bolivian economy. Approximately 25,000 (U.S. government estimate) to 50,000 (Bolivian government estimate) Bolivian jobs rely on trade with the United States made possible by ATPDEA - a significant percentage of the formal-economy workforce in a country whose entire population is under 10 million. Much of this employment is in the sprawling working-class city of El Alto, on the margins of La Paz, where the country's textile industry is based. The government is also concerned that the loss of these jobs could cause an increase in out-migration to other countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Spain.

In response to the pending suspension of ATPDEA, Bolivian President Evo Morales has said "We don't have to be afraid of an economic blockade by the United States against the Bolivian people." Instead he has announced that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has offered to replace and even surpass the income that ATPDEA generates for Bolivia and that the Iranian Government is interested in buying the products that will no longer be for eligible to enter the United States duty-free.

Bolivian Chancellor David Choquehaunca has claimed that Bush's announcement is not the "final word" and classified his decision as "entirely political" - a result of Bolivia's September expulsion of the U.S. ambassador, rather than a consequence of anti-drug strategy. However, we will have to wait to see whether Chancellor Choquehaunca's words turn out to be true, whether President Bush is going to stick to his initial decision and suspend Bolivia's trade preferences under ATPDEA as of January 1, 2009, and if so, whether President Bush's successor continues the suspension next year.

Over the past month, the U.S. and regional press has been paying closer attention to Russia's relations with such Latin American countries such as Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Cuba and even Colombia.

In September, Russian Vice-Prime Minister Igor Sechin traveled to Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba to meet with his counterparts in each country to discuss the potential increase in economic, military, and political cooperation between each country and Russia. In September, two Russian T-160 strategic bombers visited Venezuela for a joint military exercise and a Russian navy squadron is currently en route to the Caribbean for joint exercises with the Venezuelan navy. Russia also has begun preliminary discussions with Cuba to help the country develop its own space center, has announced it will replace the Nicaraguan army's aging weaponry, and has started talks with Venezuela about developing a peaceful nuclear energy program.

Bolivian President Evo Morales recently announced that he will seek Russia's aid for the country's counternarcotics program, and Colombia's Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos even traveled to Russia to discuss defense and counternarcotics cooperation.

Below are links to media coverage from the past month about Russia's renewed interest in Latin America. With the exception of the Venezuelan-Russian military exercise, U.S. officials have sought to downplay this interest in their public statements. It is apparent, however, that the U.S. government is watching these developments closely.

Analysis:

The Guardian: The cold war comes to the Caribbean

Front Page Magazine: Chávez's dangerous liaisons

Semana (Colombia): Calentando la guerra fria: Heating up the cold war

New Statesman: Cuban missile crisis II?

Venezuela:

El Universal (Venezuela): Presidente Dmitri Medvedev visitará Venezuela en noviembre: President Dimitri Medvedev will visit Venezuela in November

AP: Russia: Arms sales to Venezuela are defensive

AFP: Cooperación nuclear entre Moscu y Caracas desata la pol?©mica: Nuclear cooperation between Moscow and Caracas unleashes controversy

AP: Venezuela to build nuclear technology with Russia

New York Times: Russia loans Venezuela $1 billion for military

Reuters: Putin offers nuclear energy help to Chávez

BBC: Russia and Venezuela boost ties

AP: Putin, Chávez discuss ways to constrain U.S. power

EFE: Hablan Chávez y Medvedev de cooperación economía y militar: Chávez and Medvedev discuss economic and military cooperation

AP: Crece alianza Venezuela-Rusia: Venezuelan-Russian alliance grows

New York Times: Russia and Venezuela confirm joint military exercises

Nicaragua:

AP: Russia to modernize Nicaraguan military's arsenal

El Nuevo Diario (Nicaragua): Condoleezza despectiva con Ortega: Condoleezza derogatory toward Ortega

El Nuevo Diario: Viceprimer ministro de Rusia visitará este miercoles Nicaragua: Russian Vice-Prime Minister to visit Nicaragua on Wednesday

Cuba:

Reuters: Russia to help Cuba build space center

Bolivia:

AP: Ambassador: Russia looking to boost Bolivia ties

BBC Mundo: Bolivia y Rusia, nuevos aliados: Bolivia and Russia, new allies

La Prensa (Panama): Bolivia busca apoyo de Rusia: Bolivia looks for Russian support

Colombia:

El Espectador (Colombia):Moscu propone a Colombia combatir el creciente trafico de cocaína: Moscow makes a proposal to Colombia to combat the rise in narcotrafficking

El Tiempo (Colombia): Fortalecer cooperacion de seguridad, objetivo de viaje del Ministro de Defensa a Rusia: Strengthening security cooperation, objective of the Defense Minister's trip to Russia

Last week, both the House and Senate voted to extend the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. (ATPDEA is a trade preference system by which these four countries are granted duty-free access to a wide range of exports, with the goal of promoting economic development and providing alternatives to the production of cocaine.) While the House version granted a one-year extension to all four countries, the version of the bill passed by the Senate granted a one-year extension to Colombia and Peru and a six-month extension to Ecuador and Bolivia. A final, reconciled bill awaits approval.

For Bolivia, however, the outcome of Congress' decision on the matter may not make a difference.

On Friday, September 26, President Bush enacted his presidential powers as outlined under the terms of the law, requesting that Bolivia's designation as a beneficiary country under ATPDEA be suspended. Under the terms of the agreement, the President may withdraw or suspend the designation of a country as a beneficiary country if the country is not satisfying the eligibility criteria. According to the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the White House's decision is based on the designation of Bolivia, on September 15, 2008, as a country that has failed demonstrably to cooperate with counternarcotics efforts. As outlined in a USTR press release,

the recent expulsion of U.S. Agency for International Development personnel and the removal of U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration officials from the main areas of Bolivia's illegal coca production, a marked increase in cocaine production, the government's failure to close illegal coca markets, and publicly stated policies that increase government-sanctioned coca cultivation, have placed in doubt the Bolivian government's commitment to cooperate in the fight against drug trafficking.

President Bush's decision has received criticism from OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza, who said that the suspension of trade preferences by the United States "will gravely harm many small Bolivian industries that survive on exportations of their products to the United States, and could leave more than 50,000 Bolivian workers without jobs." Other sources, such as Bolivia's La Razón and Los Tiempos, cite a loss of anywhere between 5,000 - 80,000 jobs.

According to U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab, the United States "regret[s] that the proposed suspension that is prompted by the Bolivian government's actions could affect hard-working Bolivians.... Once imposed, the suspension could be lifted as soon as the Bolivian government improves its performance under the ATPA and ATPDEA criteria" (i.e. proves that it is cooperating with the United States' counternarcotics efforts). However, Bolivian President Evo Morales has said that "dignity is more important and we cannot give in or back down," giving the impression that Bolivia's counternarcotics efforts will not change to fall in line with the policies of the United States, despite warnings by the Bolivian Institute of International Trade (IBCE) that this could be "terrible . . . for the manufacturing sector."

Not only could President Bush's decision to suspend trade preferences with Bolivia lead to the unemployment of 2% of the country's total workforce, but it is also unknown if it will lead to a change in the way Bolivia conducts its counternarcotics strategy. As outlined on this blog before, Bolivia's counternarcotics results have not differed much from that of two governments friendly to the United States, Peru and Colombia, and the U.S. decision to "decertify" Bolivia came at a time of worsening diplomatic relations between Bolivia and the United States.

In accordance with the ATPDEA agreement, a public hearing must be held on the proposed action to suspend trade preferences to Bolivia, which will take place on October 23rd. However, as it looks right now, Bolivia will be removed from the list of ATPDEA designated countries at least through the end of the Bush administration in January 2009.

Last week, we speculated about whether Bolivia would be placed on the United States' list of countries who have "failed demonstrably" to cooperate with U.S. anti-narcotics policy and the implications this might have, especially when comparing coca production and eradication and seizure levels of Bolivia with those of Peru and Colombia - top U.S. allies in the region. This week, the White House issued the "Majors List" of narcotics source and transfer countries for 2008, and Bolivia had been added to the "non-cooperating" list, which last year only included Venezuela and Burma.

Below are two charts that lay out both coca cultivation and cocaine production levels in Bolivia since 1994. The U.N data used to create these charts show a 5% increase in coca cultivation and an increase in cocaine production from 94 to 104 tons in 2007. These numbers differ from those cited by Assistant Secretary of State David Johnson at a press conference this week, held upon the release of the 2008 list. In criticizing Bolivian President Evo Morales' drug policies, Assistant Secretary Johnson said "The expansion of cultivation and lack of controls on coca leaf resulted in a 14% increase in the area of coca under cultivation, and an increase in potential cocaine production from 115 to 120 metric tons." Regardless, while these numbers do show a rise in the amount of coca and cocaine in Bolivia, the increases are not outstanding, especially in comparison to Colombia and Peru's cultivation and production numbers.

The addition of Bolivia to the "non-cooperating" list, however, comes at a time of tense relations between the governments of the United States and Bolivia. Just last week, Bolivia expelled the U.S. ambassador, claiming that he was conspiring with the opposition. The United States retaliated by expelling the Bolivian ambassador the next day.

At the press conference, Assistant Secretary Johnson noted that the addition of Bolivia to the list was not "a hasty decision" in retaliation for the expulsion of the U.S. ambassador, but instead cited "the [drug] policies that they are pursuing, capped off by the expulsion, if you will, of the USAID program in Chapare [a coca-growing region in central Bolivia] for alternative development, as well as the assistance program provided by our Drug Enforcement Administration, made the conclusion rather clear."

Here is a timeline of the deterioration of U.S.-Bolivia relations since last fall.

August 2007: Bolivian Minister Juan Ramon Quintana accuses the United States of using USAID funds to finance opposition groups.

November 2007: The Bolivian government passes around a photograph of U.S. Ambassador Goldberg with John Jairo Venegas, a Colombian accused by Bolivia of being a member of the Colombian right-wing paramilitary squads.

October 2007: In reaction to a campaign supported by President Morales to relocate the UN headquarters, Ambassador Goldberg publicly announced that he wouldn't also be surprised if Evo Morales asked for Disney Land to be moved.

February 2008: U.S. embassy official Vincent Cooper was accused of asking an American student and Peace Corps volunteer to spy on Venezuelans and Cubans in Bolivia.

June 9, 2008: Thousands of Bolivian protesters marched on the U.S. Embassy to demand that Washington extradite a former Bolivian defense minister who directed a military crackdown on riots that killed at least 60 people in 2003.

The United States recalled Ambassador Goldberg in reaction to the protests.

June 26 2008: The Chapare coca growers unions announced that they will no longer sign new aid agreements with USAID, as a result of the repeated accusations against USAID made by President Morales.

In reaction, the United States removes USAID personnel from the Chapare region, while President Morales praises the coca growers for kicking out the U.S. agency.

August 2008: Due to frustration with the way the U.S. spends money to fight cocaine production in Bolivia, drug czar Felipe Caceres announces that the Bolivia government will "nationalize the war against drug trafficking." And adds that "we will still welcome cooperation in the future, but the Bolivian government will decide how that money will be spent."

September 11, 2008: President Morales again accuses Ambassador Goldberg of working with the opposition, and orders the U.S. Ambassador to leave Bolivia. In 'solidarity' with Bolivia, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez also orders the U.S. Ambassador to leave his country.

The United States reacts by expelling the Bolivian Ambassador.

September 16, 2008: The United States adds Bolivia to the list of countries who have "failed demonstrably" to cooperate with U.S. anti-narcotics policy.

Protests and demonstrations in Bolivia grew increasingly violent this week. Opponents of President Evo Morales in the resource-rich eastern provinces are pressing harder with autonomy demands after a recent recall referendum ratified both Morales and regional governors who oppose him. The latest protests have resulted in numerous casualties and significant property damage.

President Morales’ reaction has included lashing out against the United States, including Tuesday’s expulsion of the U.S. ambassador, who had met with one of the opposition governors several days earlier. Venezuela followed suit by expelling its U.S. ambassador, and the U.S. government responded by sending home both countries’ ambassadors to Washington.

The week ended with dramatically worsened relations between Bolivia and the United States and increasing speculation about the possibility – still remote – that Bolivia’s political violence could come to resemble civil war.

Links for More Information:

Analysis of the Protests

• Andean Information Network: Escalating Tensions and Increased Violence Demonstrate Widening Rifts
• Democracy Center: Where is Bolivia's Violence Headed?, Violence in Bolivia
• MABBlog: Bolivia Update
• AP: Street fights, gas disruptions plague Bolivia
• AFP: Gobierno de Bolivia teme guerra civil: The Bolivian Government fears a civil war
• La Razón (Bolivia): El Gobierno empuja a sus bases a la resistencia : The Bolivian Government’s response and message to its social bases
• AP: Evo Morales afronta la peor rebelión opositora: Evo Morales confronts the worst opposition rebellion
• La Prensa (Bolivia): La toma de instituciones en la “media luna” fue planificada: The invasión of instititions in “Media Luna” was planned
• La Razón (Bolivia): Amenazan a Sucre con el corte de agua y un cerco: Sucre is threatened with water cut off and road blocks

Information on Casualties and Damages

• Bolivian Government Information Agency: Violencia paramilitar en Cobija deja ocho muertos, 15 rehenes y varios heridos: The paramilitary violence in Cobija has left eight dead, fifteen kidnapped, and many injured
• Erbol (Bolivia): Casualties Rise to 14 dead as a result of the protests
• La Prensa (Bolivia): La toma de cinco entidades ya generó daño de $us 7 millones: The seizure of five government buildings has already resulted in $7 Million (USD)

Regional Responses to the Protests:

• Reuters: Brazil says it won't tolerate overthrow in Bolivia
• Bolivian Government Information Agency: Presidentes de Argentina, Chile y Brasil hablan y dan respaldo a Evo Morales: Presidents from Argentina, Chile and Brazil support Evo Morales

The European Union’s Response:

• Situation in Bolivia

The Bolivian Response:

• Andean Information Network: Morales rejects U.S. Ambassador, Citing His Support for Lowland Protests

The Venezuelan Response:

• New York Times: Alleging Coup Plot, Chávez Ousts U.S. Envoy
• The Guardian (UK): Hugo Chávez expels US ambassador amid claims of coup plot
• Los Angeles Times: Venezuela expels U.S. ambassador

The United States’ Response:

• Department of State: President Morales Declares Ambassador Goldberg PNG
• Department of State: U.S. Declares Bolivian Ambassador Persona Non Grata (PNG]

Potential Resolution or Dialogues:

• La Razón (Bolivia): Gobierno llama a prefecto de Tarija para sentar las bases del diálogo: The Government calls on the prefect of Tarija to discuss the basis of a dialogue
• CEDIB (Bolivia): Gobierno acepta propuesta de Cossío y lo invita a dialogar esta tarde en La Paz: The government accepts Cossio’s proposal and invites him to talk this afternoon in La Paz