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Friday, November 2, 2012

Recent News Highlights

The following links and summaries are some recent news highlights from around the region.

Bolivia

  • Last Tuesday, Bolivia's Constitutional Tribunal declared a long-standing law criminalizing defamation of government officials, known as the "desacato" law, unconstitutional for violating freedom of speech. Under the law, individuals can incur a three-year prison sentence for insulting a member of the government.
  • Later in the week Bolivian media was abuzz following comments from Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera, who warned those who might dare to criticize the president via social media, saying "I am always going online, and I am writing down the first and last names of the people who insult him on Facebook and Twitter." Morales' Movement for Socialism party (MAS) is currently attempting to push through a law monitoring Bolivian citizens' political commentary on digital news sites and social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter.
  • Earlier this month, reports revealed the government was harassing journalists from media outlets that reported on government corruption, causing them to flee over fears of incarceration. In a most recent example, a Bolivian journalist was set on fire by four masked men while on air at a radio station in the southern city of Yacuiba, along the Argentine border and a drug smuggling route. Fernando Vidal, 78, was a harsh critic of the local government and was reporting on trafficking in the area at the time of the attack. Vidal along with other journalists have been increasingly denouncing a rise in smuggling across the border, particularly of liquid petroleum gas.

    Amnesty International said the attack is "one of the worst instances of violence against journalists in Bolivia in recent years.” Four men have been arrested in the case. Bolivian Interior Minister Carlos Romero along with Vidal's son-in-law, also a journalist, believe two local government officials hired the men.

  • Mexico

  • In Mexico, workers are protesting after the country's Senate passed through a version of labor reform legislation. Members from the conservative National Action Party (PAN) as well as president-elect Peña Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) supported the bill despite differences over certain details in the law, like the election of union leaders by secret ballot, a provision opposed by the union-friendly PRI party, but was ultimately included in the draft.

    Lawmakers say the bill seeks to increase transparency of trade union finances and union leader elections-- the country's two most prominent union leaders (Elba Esther Gordillo of Mexico’s largest teachers’ union and Carlos Romero Deschamps of the Oil Workers Union) won uncontested re-election. Mexican trade unions dominate state industry and their leaders are often accused of corruption. The government says the new reforms will create thousands of new jobs, making Mexico more competitive. Some economists and politicians say the reforms could create upwards of 150,000 jobs a year.

    Workers however rose up saying that under the proposed law, it will be easier for companies to fire employees and they will be forced to accept lower wages. Mexico’s National Autonomous University (UNAM) called the reform "simplistic," saying it is not the "magic bullet" to create jobs and could harm workers' interests, particularly those in the informal sector who account for 28.8 million of the country's 50 million workers. Congressman in the lower house will now vote on the bill, however the vote has been delayed as the PRI fight to protect union interests.

  • The PAN, PRD and Citizens' Movement (MC) parties held a press conference Wednesday where they announced they would form a united legislative opposition front against PRI president-elect Enrique Peña Nieto to fight "clientelistic and corrupt practices" during his six-year term.
  • A faction of the Zetas reportedly split off and formed a new group called the Legionaries, according to Insight Crime. A banner hung by the group in Nuevo Laredo in northern Mexico says the organization has a "clear mission to kill people from the Zetas and their families" and their business is "solely and exclusively drug trafficking." The formal split comes following the capture of Zetas leader Ivan Velazquez Caballero, alias "El Taliban" and the recent killing of another head, Heriberto Lazcano, alias "Z-3," whose death was finally confirmed by authorities who used his dead father's DNA to corroborate his demise after Z-3's body disappeared from the morgue.
  • Manuel Osorio-Arellanes, from Mexico, pleaded guilty Tuesday in the 2010 shooting of US border patrol Agent Brian Terry. He claimed to be part of a group that crossed into the US to steal from marijuana smugglers and had entered the country the week prior to the shooting to stash guns and food supplies.
  • Panama

  • There were massive protests in Colon, Panama last week in response to a government law allowing for the sale of state-owned land to private companies in Latin America's biggest duty-free zone. Three people were killed, including a 9 year-old-boy, prompting groups like Amnesty International to call for investigation into excessive use of force.

    After the bill was passed last Friday, protesters from trade unions, student groups and business associations took to the streets, claiming that the sell-off will cause layoffs and a loss of revenue. The Panamanian government has since repealed the law, with assembly president Sergio Galvez saying "An error has been corrected," after the measure passed.

  • A free-trade agreement between Panama and the US was entered into force on October 31, meaning that about 86% of US products will now enter the country tariff-free. The agreement was signed by former President George W. Bush in June 2007 and approved by Panama’s parliament the same year. The U.S. Congress did not ratify the agreement until October 12, 2011, held up with concerns over labor rights and tax laws for U.S.-based corporations in Panama. Opponents of the agreement said it would normalize Panama’s status as a the second-largest tax haven in the world and allow it to remain conducive to laundering money from criminal activity, creating vulnerability to terrorist financing, as was cited in a 2006 Wikileaked memo. President Obama signed the treaty into law on October 21, 2011.
  • United States

  • Last Monday was the final debate in the US Presidential elections, covering foreign policy. There was virtually no mention of Latin America, causing analysts, politicians and voters to express dismay with both candidates.
  • Some saw the lack of discussion about Latin America as a positive sign. In a press conference after his meeting with Hillary Clinton, Brazilian Foreign Minister Antonio de Aguiar Patriota said of the debate, "it’s true that Latin America was not present, to my knowledge, and Brazil was not mentioned, but I think that the debate concentrated really on problem issues and concerns. And today, Brazil, South America in particular, is more of a region of the world that offers solutions than problems. So we interpret that in this positive light."

    Similarly in an opinion piece for Christian Science Monitor, Geoff Thale from WOLA said the scant discussion of Cuba could signal a more rational approach towards the island.

  • The Global Post profiled the relatives of US presidential candidate Mitt Romney,whose father was born in the Mexican state of Chihuahua. They are reportedly part of a Mormon community often targeted by the cartels.
  • Colombia

  • A total of 15 Colombian government security force members since formal peace talks between the FARC and the Colombian government began in Oslo, Norway on October 18. Last week nine soliders were killed in combat, while six police were killed Monday in the southwestern Cauca department.
  • The FARC proposed a cease-fire during the talks, but President Juan Manuel Santos has repeatedly refused their request. A group of Colombian NGOs has called on the government to stop fighting for the month between December 15 and January 15. A recent Gallup poll showed 72% of Colombians support the peace process, but only 39% believe they would be successful. Another recent poll indicates President Santos' approval rating has gone up seven points to 58% since the announcement of the peace talks.
  • In an interview with W Radio, President Obama said his hope was that a "peaceful Colombia would be created and that the FARC lay down their arms and recognize that although they disagree with the government they should participate in the political process instead of using violence."
  • Last Thursday, Human Rights Watch sent a letter to Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, criticizing a proposed constitutional amendment which would expand the jurisdiction of the military. According to the letter, the measure would, "result in serious human rights violations by the military—including extrajudicial executions, torture, and rape—being investigated and tried by the military justice system."
  • Colombia is also in the process of producing their own unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or "drones." Although Colombia has been using US drones since 2006, this will be the first domestically-produced UAV used by the country's military.The drones will reportedly be used for military operations as well as for other functions such as monitoring oil pipelines.
  • Colombian drug lord Henry de Jesus Lopez Londoño, alias "Mi Sangre," was arrested
    in a Buenos Aires supermarket. Mi Sangre was a top leader of the Urabeños drug gang and was in charge of expanding and maintaining the group's presence and control throughout Medellin, Colombia's second-largest city.
  • Speaking at a trade-show on defense and security, Colombian Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzon said within two years the country would be adding 25,000 members to its armed forces,which currently have about 450,000 members, making it the second-largest military in South America following Brazil.
  • Honduras

  • The Honduras Truth Commission released a report on human rights violations before and after the 2009 coup. The blog Honduras Accompaniment Project summarizes the reports findings: "In total, the Truth Commission received “1,966 reports from citizens about human rights violations by state agents and armed civilian apparatuses protected by state institutions” between June 2009 and August 2011. Based on these reports, the Commission analyzed 5,418 human rights violations and categorized 87 forms of aggression."
  • Brazil

  • In Brazil several convictions have been handed out to officials in former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government-- including his then chief of staff Jose Dirceu-- who were found guilty of using public funds to pay monthly installments to opposition congressmen in return for their support, known as the "Mensalão" case, in which about 40 officials were implicated. The case is historic in showing a strengthening of the rule of law in the country as Brazil has a long history of impunity for political corruption.
  • In another landmark legal proceeding, a federal judge in Sao Paulo agreed to charge a soldier and two officers with the kidnapping of a dissident during Brazil’s 1964-1985 dictatorship, marking the second accusation of a top military officer for human rights abuses committed during the dictatorship, despite a 1979 amnesty law.
  • On October 28th, Brazil held run-off municipal elections, with President Rousseff's and former President Lula's Workers’ Party (PT) winning the majority of the mayoral races, including Sao Paulo. Analysts say this puts the party in a favorable position for the 2014 presidential elections.
  • In Sao Paulo 600 police were sent to the city's largest favela, Paraisópolis, as part of a larger initiative that was launched on Monday called "Operação Saturação," or "Operation Saturation,"intended to stifle drug trafficking and organized crime throughout the city. According to numbers from Sao Paulo's Secretary of Public Security,crime rates in Sao Paulo are on the rise, with the city registering 144 homicides in the month of September against the 71 that occurred in the same month last year and 145 homicides in October, an 86% increase from 2011 when 78 murders were registered in the same month that year.

    According to government statistics, 40 people have been killed since last Thursday, 124 in the past 23 days, with a large part of the murders being carried out by men on motorcycles or in cars. A spokesman for the Sao Paulo police force denied the operation was launched in response to the recent wave of murders, saying they "received intelligence that there were criminals, weapons and drugs" inside the favela and that "there will be more actions like this in the coming days."

  • Venezuela

  • Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez replaced Defense Minister General Henry Rangel Silva, appointing Navy Admiral Diego Molero Bellavia to the post. Rangel, a close ally of Chavez, will be the candidate for Chavez' United Socialist Party (PSUV) for governor of Trujillo in state elections on December 16. The US accused Rangel in 2008 of "materially assisting" the drug trafficking operations of Colombia's Farc guerrillas.
  • President Chavez said on Thursday he will be attending the upcoming Mercosur presidential summit set for December 7 in Brasilia. Venezuela became a full Mercosur member July 31 following the group's decision to suspend Paraguay, whose Senate had barred Venezuelan participation. Brazil's foreign ministry noted the benefit of Venezuela's inclusion to the regional trade bloc saying, “With the entry of Venezuela, Mercosur has now a population of 270 million inhabitants (70% of South America population), GDP at current prices of 3.3 trillion dollars (79.6% of South American GDP) and a territory of 12.7 million km2 (72% of South American area), extending from Patagonia to the Caribbean and asserting itself as a global energy power.”

Friday, June 10, 2011

Podcast: Trends in Latin American military spending: a conversation with SIPRI's Carina Solmirano

Carina Solmirano, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), talked to Adam Isacson and Lucila Santos about military expenditure in Latin America following the release of SIPRI Yearbook 2011.

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Solmirano co-authored the Yearbook's chapter on global military spending (a free download of the chapter is available here - click on “Sample Chapter”). She pursued her doctoral studies at the University of Denver and previously worked on defense and regional security issues in Argentina. She is part of SIPRI's Military Expenditure Project, which monitors developments in military spending worldwide and maintains the most comprehensive, consistent and extensive data source available on the topic.

SIPRI's 2011 Yearbook revealed interesting aspects of the military expenditure landscape in Latin America:

-Surprisingly, South America is the region of the world where military spending grew most rapidly, by 5.8%, a total of US$63.3 billion. This is in stark contrast with a global rise in military expenditure of 1.3% in 2010. However, in absolute terms, South America continues to be one of the regions that spends the least on its militaries. To add some perspective, the US$63.3 billion spent by South America is slightly above that spent by France alone, and represents only 4% of the total global expenditure.

-Much of it has to do with Brazil’s increase in military expenditure with a 9.3% rise in the last year. Between 2001 and 2010, Brazilian military spending increased 30%. In 2010, Brazil’s share of GDP in military spending was 1.6%, compared with 2.1% of the world share.

-Brazil, along with the United States and several other big countries, is leading the global rise in military spending. Together with Russia, China, India, South Africa and Turkey, SIPRI explains that Brazil’s increase in military expenditure is due to a rapidly growing economy and its greater economic and political role in South America, Latin America, and globally. Brazil is developing, like the other countries, as a military power by engaging in military modernization programs. In Brazil’s case, its economic growth has been a key driver of the military modernization and spending. SIPRI also claims that, given Brazil's absence of traditional military threats or regional rivalries, the investment in its military may respond to the desire of building military power as a source of status.

-Curiously enough, Paraguay and Peru had military expenditure increases of 16%.

-The only exceptions to the rise in military spending in South America during 2010 have been Venezuela, Bolivia and Uruguay. In Venezuela’s case, the decline in expenditure was 27%, the highest drop in the region. Another not-expected case is that of Mexico, which despite deploying the military to fight internally against drug-trafficking, has only shown an increase of 2% in its military spending.

-Finally, some observations about SIPRI’s data: measured in US dollars, Brazil is the country that spent the most militarily (US$28,096), followed by Colombia (US$9,191) and Chile (US$6,198). Even more interesting is when we look at military expenditures as a share of each country’s GDP. In Brazil’s case is 1.6%, while Colombia and Chile show the higher percentages of their GDP spent in the military: 3.7% and 3.5% respectively.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

The defense budget burden: Colombia and the United States

Thanks to a column by Hernán González Rodríguez in today’s edition of Medellín’s El Colombiano newspaper, we found a very useful document (PDF) on the website of Colombia’s Treasury Ministry. It breaks down, according to function and institution, the Colombian government’s budget for 2010, and what it expects to spend in 2011.

Colombia, which has an internal armed conflict and Latin America’s second-largest armed forces after Brazil (and an army that’s actually larger than Brazil’s), will spend 20.0 percent of its budget, and 3.9 percent its entire economy, on its military and police next year. This would be up from 18.4 percent of the budget and down from 4.2 percent of the economy this year.

Colombia will spend US$12.1 billion on its Defense Ministry and National Police next year, at the current peso-to-dollar exchange rate. That’s about US$270 from each one of Colombia’s 45 million citizens.

But U.S. citizens bear an even higher military burden, as indicated in the White House’s budget estimates for 2011 (go here [PDF] and look at “Table 3.1—Outlays by Superfunction and Function”).

The United States will spend US$749.7 billion on defense next year. That’s 23.0 percent of on-budget spending, and 4.8 percent of the U.S. economy. This is up from 22.7 percent and down from 4.9 percent in 2010.

That’s about US$2,400 from each one of the United States’ 310.5 million citizens.

Unlike Colombia, this figure does not include police forces, who are scattered across thousands of state and local jurisdictions and impossible to add here.

(U.S. 2011 GDP estimate: the White House’s 2010 “Mid-Session Review

Colombia 2011 GDP estimate: the IMF’s 2010 Article IV Consultation [PDF])

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

A season of arms purchases

Brazil's announcement yesterday that it is negotiating a $2-4 billion purchase of French fighter aircraft is the latest in a series of arms purchases, most of them in South America, that have analysts worried about an arms race. Just in 2009, we have seen the following arms purchases announced:

  • Brazil will buy 36 Rafale fighter jets from French aircraft manufacturer Dassault. Earlier, Brazil had announced a joint venture with France to build submarines - one of them nuclear-powered - and helicopters.
  • Russia offered a $100 million credit to Bolivia to buy Mi-17 helicopters, a new presidential plane, trucks and other logistical equipment. In January, Bolivia's defense ministry announced its intention to buy six Czech-made L-159 fighter planes.
  • President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, whose government signed deals for about $4.4 billion worth of Russian fighter planes, helicopters and rifles between 2005 and 2007, announced in early August the purchase of 30 to 40 Russian-made BMP-3, T-72 and MPR tanks. In April, Chávez announced the purchase of portable Russian missiles.
  • "Ecuador is buying 24 Brazilian warplanes and six Israeli drones to keep a closer watch on its borders," the AP reports.
  • In June, Chile announced a $270 million purchase of 18 U.S.-made F-16 fighters from the Netherlands. This follows the purchase of 10 F-16s directly from the United States in 2005-2006.
  • In addition to billions of dollars worth of training and equipment received as grants, Colombia has purchased dozens of helicopters from the United States during the 2000s, and in June announced a $150 million purchase of Israeli Kfir fighter jets from Israel.

During the mid-2000s, the United States normally sold between $1.1 and $1.4 billion in weapons to all of Latin America and the Caribbean in a typical year. This amount is dwarfed by some of Russia's single sales to Venezuela during this period, as well as the new French contract with Brazil. Sill, the United States is by far the largest arms vendor to the developing world, according to an annual Congressional Research Service report released late last week and summarized by the New York Times.

The United States signed weapons agreements valued at $37.8 billion in 2008, or 68.4 percent of all business in the global arms bazaar, up significantly from American sales of $25.4 billion the year before.

Italy was a distant second, with $3.7 billion in worldwide weapons sales in 2008, while Russia was third with $3.5 billion in arms sales last year.

Monday, January 12, 2009

The region's defense budgets

During the past few weeks, we noticed a significant increase in discussion of defense budgets throughout the hemisphere. In most countries, defense spending is on the increase. Here is an overview of recent media coverage from CIP Intern Matthew Mcclellan.

The combined defense budgets of South American states increased from US$39 billion in 2007 to US$50 billion in 2008. Most countries have become buyers in the new market for arms, some are sellers, and nearly all are furtively examining their neighbors' actions.

The Ecuadorian government took a step toward spending transparency with the elimination of the Junta de Defensa. The Junta was accused of embarrassing gaffes like the Defense Ministry overpaying for used Argentine defense articles, as it did in 1995. Some feel the government’s action amounts to little more than a token gesture. President Correa has meanwhile overseen a large increase in defense spending. From 2000 through 2008, Ecuador spent over US$895 million on Defense. During Correa’s time in office, since January 2007, the Defense budget soared over US$631 million – over 70% of the nine-year spending total in just two years.

Argentina has not put nearly as much money into the military as its neighbors, claiming a Defense budget of only 0.87% of its 2008 GDP. The Air Force has put off purchasing French Mirage fighter aircraft until 2011 or 2012, when it will reevaluate the economic climate. Today, the country’s most pressing Defense concern is keeping troops in its Armed Forces. Unlike other countries that are considering increasing military capacities, Argentina is concerned with maintaining them. A recent study found nearly half of all individuals in the Armed Forces have considered leaving within the last two years, including a substantial number of young pilots and officers who have left to seek better opportunities, for better pay, or to keep their families intact.

Some Argentine analysts appear distraught about falling behind “international heavyweight” – and neighbor – Brazil. In December, President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva announced Brazil’s plan to upgrade its military and arms industry. Part of the plan includes training soldiers in rapid mobilization and guerrilla tactics, and the government wishes to resurrect conscription. While the plan includes purchasing foreign arms, the modernization's focus is for the country to increase its domestic arms industry.

Brazil has ordered 4 diesel-powered Scorpène class submarines from France, but plans to develop its own nuclear-powered fleet, at a total cost over US$3 billion. The plan appears to be both financed by, and in the name of protecting, newly found Brazilian offshore oil reserves.

Over the last several months, Brazil has consolidated its position as the largest South American arms vendor. Bolivia recently negotiated the purchase of Brazilian land vehicles and Super Tucano attack aircraft, and hopes to borrow from Brazilian institutions to fund additional purchases. Bolivia has also acquired several helicopters from Russia.

Venezuela's Defense budget is 1% of its 2008 GDP, but growing steadily. It has been cultivating a relationship with Russia through arms purchases over the last several years. From 2005 through 2008, Venezuela bought over US$4 billion in arms and equipment from Moscow, and a September announcement revealed another US$1 billion credit for more purchases from Russia.

Peru has decided to install two facilities capable of repairing Russian-made helicopters, clearly setting the stage for future purchases between the two nations. While this particularly animated editorial in El Comercio questions the drive to increase Defense spending, much of the discussion centers on keeping pace with Chile, which maintained a 2008 Defense budget of 3.73% of its GDP, second only to Colombia in South America.

Colombia has more than doubled its defense expenditure since 2000. The Defense Ministry's budget, which includes police, now exceeds 6 percent of GDP. U.S. security assistance to Colombia is slightly less than it was in the early 2000s, making the U.S. contribution to Colombia's overall defense effort far smaller, as this July blog post from the Center for International Policy explains. Nonetheless Juan Manuel Santos, Colombia’s Defense Minister, plans to travel to Washington shortly after Barack Obama's inauguration, to urge officials to maintain established levels of aid under the Plan Colombia framework.