Sunday, December 14, 2008

A deep cut in aid to Nicaragua

The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) is a U.S. government economic-aid program begun during the first years of the Bush administration. It offers several-year "contracts" of aid to countries that meet a list of good governance criteria, then submit and receive approval for aid proposals. (See our MCC aid data here.)

In Latin America, only Honduras ($215 million [PDF]), Nicaragua ($175 million [PDF]), and El Salvador ($461 million [PDF]) have received MCC aid under several-year contracts. Paraguay and Guyana have received smaller amounts through single-year grants via what the MCC calls its "Threshold" program. The three countries that received MCC contract aid have seen a general decline in U.S. assistance through other, "traditional" U.S. economic-aid programs.

According to its contract, Nicaragua was scheduled to receive $47.5 million in MCC aid in 2009. On Thursday, however, the MCC announced that it was suspending Nicaragua's participation in the program due to concerns about the validity of recent local elections.

The Board also voted to suspend assistance for new activities under the $175 million MCC compact in Nicaragua because of actions taken by the Nicaraguan government that are inconsistent with MCC’s eligibility criteria. MCC will therefore not approve disbursements for activities not already contracted by MCA-Nicaragua. The political conditions leading up to, during, and following recent elections in Nicaragua were not consistent with MCC requirements that include a commitment to policies that promote political freedom and respect for civil liberties and the rule of law.

The Board called on Nicaragua to develop and implement a comprehensive set of measures to address concerns regarding the government’s commitment to democratic principles. The Board will review the response of the Nicaraguan government and determine subsequent actions at its next quarterly Board meeting in March 2009.

“The MCC model is based on aid with accountability and good governance. The Board determined that recent actions by the Nicaraguan government were inconsistent with MCC’s core principles and therefore had to take this difficult decision,” said Ambassador Danilovich. “Nicaragua’s compact with MCC benefits hundreds of thousands of poor Nicaraguans by providing better roads, property titles, and agricultural business support. For the sake of the poor of the country, we sincerely hope that the Nicaraguan government recommits to the principles of democracy and the rule of law so that MCC can reestablish what has been an effective partnership. It should be remembered that our partnership with Nicaragua is dedicated to both poverty reduction and good government policies.”

As a result of the MCC aid suspension, we estimate that U.S. assistance to the hemisphere's second-poorest country will plummet in 2009 to its lowest level, in nominal dollars, since 2001.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Russia strengthens ties with Latin America

Over the past month, the U.S. and regional press has been paying closer attention to Russia's relations with such Latin American countries such as Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Cuba and even Colombia.

In September, Russian Vice-Prime Minister Igor Sechin traveled to Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba to meet with his counterparts in each country to discuss the potential increase in economic, military, and political cooperation between each country and Russia. In September, two Russian T-160 strategic bombers visited Venezuela for a joint military exercise and a Russian navy squadron is currently en route to the Caribbean for joint exercises with the Venezuelan navy. Russia also has begun preliminary discussions with Cuba to help the country develop its own space center, has announced it will replace the Nicaraguan army's aging weaponry, and has started talks with Venezuela about developing a peaceful nuclear energy program.

Bolivian President Evo Morales recently announced that he will seek Russia's aid for the country's counternarcotics program, and Colombia's Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos even traveled to Russia to discuss defense and counternarcotics cooperation.

Below are links to media coverage from the past month about Russia's renewed interest in Latin America. With the exception of the Venezuelan-Russian military exercise, U.S. officials have sought to downplay this interest in their public statements. It is apparent, however, that the U.S. government is watching these developments closely.

Analysis:

The Guardian: The cold war comes to the Caribbean

Front Page Magazine: Chávez's dangerous liaisons

Semana (Colombia): Calentando la guerra fria: Heating up the cold war

New Statesman: Cuban missile crisis II?

Venezuela:

El Universal (Venezuela): Presidente Dmitri Medvedev visitará Venezuela en noviembre: President Dimitri Medvedev will visit Venezuela in November

AP: Russia: Arms sales to Venezuela are defensive

AFP: Cooperación nuclear entre Moscu y Caracas desata la pol?©mica: Nuclear cooperation between Moscow and Caracas unleashes controversy

AP: Venezuela to build nuclear technology with Russia

New York Times: Russia loans Venezuela $1 billion for military

Reuters: Putin offers nuclear energy help to Chávez

BBC: Russia and Venezuela boost ties

AP: Putin, Chávez discuss ways to constrain U.S. power

EFE: Hablan Chávez y Medvedev de cooperación economía y militar: Chávez and Medvedev discuss economic and military cooperation

AP: Crece alianza Venezuela-Rusia: Venezuelan-Russian alliance grows

New York Times: Russia and Venezuela confirm joint military exercises

Nicaragua:

AP: Russia to modernize Nicaraguan military's arsenal

El Nuevo Diario (Nicaragua): Condoleezza despectiva con Ortega: Condoleezza derogatory toward Ortega

El Nuevo Diario: Viceprimer ministro de Rusia visitará este miercoles Nicaragua: Russian Vice-Prime Minister to visit Nicaragua on Wednesday

Cuba:

Reuters: Russia to help Cuba build space center

Bolivia:

AP: Ambassador: Russia looking to boost Bolivia ties

BBC Mundo: Bolivia y Rusia, nuevos aliados: Bolivia and Russia, new allies

La Prensa (Panama): Bolivia busca apoyo de Rusia: Bolivia looks for Russian support

Colombia:

El Espectador (Colombia):Moscu propone a Colombia combatir el creciente trafico de cocaína: Moscow makes a proposal to Colombia to combat the rise in narcotrafficking

El Tiempo (Colombia): Fortalecer cooperacion de seguridad, objetivo de viaje del Ministro de Defensa a Rusia: Strengthening security cooperation, objective of the Defense Minister's trip to Russia

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Nicaragua's SAM-7 missiles

Since the end of the Contra war in 1990, the United States has regularly prodded Nicaragua to destroy a large trove of shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles that the Sandinista government received from the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

Nicaragua is still believed to possess as many as 1,000 SAM-7s (probably less). Since the missiles can be used just as easily against commercial jets as against military targets, U.S. administrations have been concerned about the possibility that they could end up in the hands of terrorists. This concern grew after the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Nicaraguan governments have responded to U.S. pressure over the years by destroying about half of the 2,000 Soviet weapons. The government of Sandinista-Party President Daniel Ortega, elected in late 2006, has been far less willing to go along, however.

When it first assumed office, the new government argued that the missiles were necessary to deter neighboring Honduras, which has been slowly upgrading its aging fleet of U.S.-supplied F-5 fighter planes. Since March 2008, though, President Ortega has chosen a new hypothetical enemy to deter: Colombia.

It was in that month that Ortega joined Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez in angrily rejecting the Colombian raid on Ecuadorian soil that killed Raúl Reyes, a top leader of Colombia's FARC guerrillas. Relations between Nicaragua and Colombia had already been poor; in December the World Court ended a long-running dispute about sovereignty over the Caribbean islands of San Andrés and Providencia by finding in Colombia's favor. In the months after the Ecuador raid, Ortega has angered Colombia's government further by speaking fondly of the FARC and granting asylum to FARC members who were injured in the attack.

Here are translated excerpts from an article posted yesterday to a Sandinista party website. They show that the SAM-7 issue has now become entangled with Nicaragua's worsening relations with Colombia. They also show, however, that the Nicaraguan government remains willing to bargain with the United States to get a better deal in exchange for the missiles' destruction.

Nicaragua will keep SAM-7s

Nicaragua will keep the SAM-7 missiles in its military defense system, due to the reiterated threats from Colombia's government, which is maintaining its warships on the 82nd parallel even though that is not the maritime border between both countries, according to the findings of the International Court of Justice in the Hague.

President Daniel Ortega indicated that the counter-proposal to exchange the missiles sent by the U.S. government was shameful. …

The comandante mentioned the counter-proposal sent by the U.S. government in exchange for the destruction of the SAM-7 missiles, which he considered "shameful."

Nicaragua requested, in exhange for the destruction of these apparatuses, US$32 million in medical equipment to be installed in public hospitals to benefit the population.

"Our proposal is 32 million dollars in medical equipment, because we consider it to be fundamental to improve conditions in the hospitals. They have improved, we have managed to advance in that sense, but it is still not enough because the demand is increasing," he said.

"We consider the counter-proposal that they made to be shameful: They offered us 5 million dollars in medical equipment, when they are spending billions of dollars on the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, when they are spending billions of dollars on the famous Plan Colombia," he criticized.

He recalled that during the presentation of the U.S. counter-proposal, relations between Nicaragua and the Colombian government became tenser.

"Here we have no other choice but to keep the missiles, because it is the only defensive weapon we have, and we must hope that we finally come to find an attitude on Colombia's part that respects what the International Court of Justice decided," he assured.

"When Colombia respects what the Court resolved, there will be [appropriate] conditions. When Colombia is no longer a threat to Nicaragua, we will once again take up this negotiation with the U.S. government," he explained.

He revealed that a recent poll carried out by the "Government of Citizen Power" reveals that 77 percent of the population agrees with Nicaragua's position with respect to the defense of sovereignty.

He indicated that a small minority exists that disagrees, and that they even do propaganda work for the Colombian government through the media. …

He rejected the Colombian president's proposal that Nicaragua, upon granting asylum to the young Colombian women who are now in our country, should first demand that they reject their principles and ideals.

Ortega said that this proposal was like blackmail. "I believe that the President of Colombia does not believe in Christian precepts, he only believes in the doctrine of hatred and confrontation. Can you believe that he asks us to condition asylum on the renunciation of principles, this is called blackmail, this doesn't reflect well on President Uribe to be using the language of blackmailers, we cannot understand why he would be competing with his minister of defense [the outspoken Juan Manuel Santos] to see who is the biggest killer," Daniel said, suggesting that the Colombian government work seriously for peace.

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