• Last Tuesday's elections resulted in significant changes to the make-up of the U.S. Congress. Republicans gained a majority in the House of Representatives and the Democrats narrowly maintained a slim majority in the Senate. What does this mean for U.S. policy to Latin America? Many Latin Americanists worked on answering that question throughout the week. Some good reads:
  • Adam Isacson explains what a Republican majority in the House means for Latin America, and provides background information on the new House committee chairs;
  • New America Foundation's Anya Landau sees little change, positive or negative, on Cuba policy in the new U.S. Congress;
  • Josh Rogin "introduces" us to the new House Foreign Affairs Chairwoman, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen; and
  • Andres Oppenheimer suggest that "there will be a huge pressure to cut foreign aid, which could include anti-drug programs such as Plan Merida for Mexico and Central America, Plan Colombia and aid to earthquake-devasted Haiti."
• Tuesday's elections also resulted in the defeat of Proposition 19 in California, which would have allowed for the regulation of marijuana in the state. In the lead-up to the election, the implications of Proposition 19 for Latin America, and the "drug war" in the region, was the topic of many debates. Regardless of the results of the vote on Proposition 19, WOLA's Coletta Youngers wrote that "the genie has been let out of the bottle" and "Prop 19 has furthered an international debate on alternatives for regulating cannabis that will no doubt continue and even expand after the polls close on November 2."
• Last Sunday, Brazil elected a new president: Dilma Rousseff of the ruling Workers' Party won a 55-to-44-percent victory in the country's second-round vote. She will take office - succeeding her close ally, popular two-term president Luis Inacio Lula da Silva - and become the first woman to serve as president of Brazil on January 1, 2011.

  Many analysts took the opportunity to speculate about the implications of Dilma Rousseff's victory for the future of Brazil. Definitely not an exhaustive list, but some of the analyses include those by Adam Isacson, Jeffrey Rubin, Julia Sweig, Peter Hakim, and David Rothkopf.

• October was the bloodiest month so far in 2010 in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, with a total of 350 murders registered. The violence continues into November, and this weekend at least 20 individuals were killed in the Mexican border city, putting local death toll estimates for the year at more than 2,600.
• A mass demonstration in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, brought somewhere between 500 and 1,000 people to the streets to demand the demilitarization of their city, after a student was shot by two police officers at a protest last week.
• Also demanding demilitarization of the drug war in Mexico via a halt to U.S. military and police aid to Mexico under the Mérida Initiative, are dozens of U.S. and Mexican organizations. The organizations are circulating a sign-on letter right now that insists that the U.S. government focuses instead "on attacking the causes and structures of organized crime within the United States' drug addiction and the demand for black-market drugs, international financial transactions and transborder corruption, arms trafficking--and aid Mexico in eliminating the roots causes of the spread of crime such as poverty, inequality, unemployment and the lack of opportunities for youth." You can read, and sign-on to, the letter here.
• The United Nations Development Program released a new report on inequality last week, in which it ranks 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries among the 15 worst in terms on inequality. These countries include Haiti, Bolivia, Ecuador, Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay and Chile. The report also ranks Uruguay as the region's most equal country.
• A dispute over the Costa Rican and Nicaraguan border emerged after Costa Rican officials alleged that Nicaraguan troops crossed into Costa Rican territory. Costa Rica took the dispute to the Organization of American States last week, however, Google also became an unintentional third party after Costa Rica claimed that the border line on Google Maps were incorrect. On Friday, Google changed the border line in Google Maps, granting the disputed territory to Costa Rica, after consulting data supplied from the U.S. Department of State. The blog on the Google Earth and Maps team's "Lat Long Blog" explaining the dispute and the boundary line move gives a brief history lesson, too, explaining that the dispute in the area goes back to at least the mid-19th century.
• Uruguay's Supreme Court ruled that amnesty was unconstitutional in a number of cases involving human rights violations committed during the country's 12-year dictatorship.

• Mexican authorities seized 134 tons of marijuana on Sunday near the Mexico-U.S. border. On Wednesday, the 15,300 bales were set ablaze. One heavily quoted excerpt from the New York Times on the "bonfire" no longer appears in the article, but is included in the slideshow of the event. It reads:

  And so up in smoke went the equivalent of a few hundred million joints in what Mexican authorities called the largest seizure of the drug in the country’s history, a dash of hype befitting the elaborate ceremony to both get rid of it and highlight a success, any success, in a bloody, lingering drug war.

• 30 members of Congress sent a letter (PDF) to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton requesting a suspension of U.S. aid to the Honduran government. This letter argues that "assassinations, arbitrary arrests, beatings and death threats targeting political activists and the human rights workers who attempt to protect them" continue with impunity. LAWG's Lisa Haugaard provides more information about recent attacks against human rights defenders and journalists in Honduras in this Huffington Post article.

  State Department Spokesman P.J. Crowley responded to a question about the letter on Wednesday, stating that the State Department does not intend to cut off assistance to Honduras, as requested in the letter.

  ... I think where we disagree with our congressional colleagues is that they conditioned progress on the human rights as a precondition for the return of Honduras to the OAS. We think they go hand in hand – improving the democratic performance of the government is vitally important, but also reintegrating Honduras into the community of democratic nations in this hemisphere is also important. And in fact, the election of the Lobo government was itself a major step forward for Honduras.

• Mexican President Felipe Calderón sent Congress a proposal that would reform Mexico's military justice code, requiring troops to be tried in civilian courts for three types of human rights abuses: torture, rape and forced disappearance. Mexican and international human rights organizations argue that the proposal "falls short of what was expected from Mexico," and "fails to hold armed forces accountable." Here are some responses to the proposed reform from LAWG, WOLA, Human Rights Watch and 13 Mexican organizations.
• Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Arturo Valenzuela met with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez on September 24th on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly "to encourage the release of Alan Gross," a USAID contractor arrested in Cuba on December 3, 2009 after being accused of spying.
• In response to the news that Russia is to build a nuclear power plant in Venezuela, President Obama said, "We have no incentive nor interest in increasing friction between Venezuela and the U.S., but we do think Venezuela needs to act responsibly."
• A new report by the National Commission on Human Rights in Honduras says that every 88 minutes someone is murdered in Honduras.
• In Colombia, a former high-ranking DAS official, Martha Leal, said that ex-DAS director Andres Peñate ordered her to spy on opposition figures at the "express request of former President Alvaro Uribe." Leal has been ordered to testify in the investigation into former President Uribe's involvement in the illegal wiretapping of his opponents.
• A new report by the Third National Survey on the Verification of the Rights of the Displaced in Colombia says that, as a result of violence, 6.65 million hectares of productive lands were abandoned in Colombia between 1980 and July 2010.
• The Houston Chronicle's Dudley Althaus writes about police reform in Mexico.
• Assistant Secretary of State David T. Johnson traveled to Guatemala and Honduras this week. While in Guatemala, Assistant Secretary Johnson ratified the United States' support in the country's fight against organized crime. "The United States is committed to working with Central America and Guatemala to combat corruption and organized crime through security services and rule of law," he said during a press conference at the National Civilian Police headquarters. In Honduras, he met with President Porfirio Lobo and convened the U.S.-Honduras Merida-CARSI Task Force. Johnson said, "I do not think that Honduras is about to become a 'narco-state', but I do think that the country has the challenge to confront it and I think that working together they can build institutions that can confront this challenge."
• Over the weekend, Brazilian presidential candidate José Serra promised a "great war against drugs" if elected president in the upcoming runoff election against Dilma Rousseff. A recent Vox Populi poll shows Rousseff with 51 percent of vote intention compared to 39 percent for Serra.
• A high-level delegation of U.S. officials will arrive in Colombia on Sunday. The group will include Undersecretary of State James Steinberg, Assistant Secretary of State, Arturo Valenzuela, and Maria Otero, Undersecretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs. Officials say that good governance, democracy, human rights, energy and science and technology will be the main issues discussed--notably absent from these bilateral talks is the word "drugs."

On November 2nd, California voters will head to the polls to vote on, among many other things, Proposition 19. Also known as the "Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010" (the text of the proposed law can be downloaded here), Proposition 19 is a ballot proposition which would legalize and regulate recreational marijuana use in California. "Adults could possess up to one ounce of the drug and grow small gardens on private property. Local governments would decide whether to allow and tax sales of the drug," explains the Associated Press.

California's Proposition 19 has sparked a debate about the potential effect the end of prohibition of marijuana in the United States could have on drug cartels, and whether other countries should follow suit. Proponents argue that Proposition 19 will cut off funding to drug cartels via a reduction in revenues from marijuana sales and provide an important first step toward the end of the current drug war policies. Opponents argue that the impact on revenues will be insignificant, as marijuana is not as lucrative for drug cartels as other drugs, such as cocaine and heroine, and other criminal enterprises, including kidnapping, extortion, and human smuggling.

The main group advocating for the passage of Proposition 19, Yes on 19, argues that Proposition 19 will "cut off funding to violent drug cartels across our border who currently generate 60 percent of their revenue from the illegal U.S. marijuana market." However, a new RAND paper released this week counters that argument. The authors of "Reducing Drug Trafficking Revenues and Violence in Mexico: Would Legalizing Marijuana in California Help?" find:

1. Mexican DTOs' gross revenues from illegally exporting marijuana to wholesalers in the United States is likely less than $2 billion;
2. The claim that 60 percent of Mexican DTO gross drug export revenues come from marijuana should not be taken seriously;
3. If legalization only affects revenues from supplying marijuana to California, DTO drug export revenue losses would be very small, perhaps 2-4 percent;
4. The only way legalizing marijuana in California would significantly influence DTO revenues and the related violence is if California-produced marijuana is smuggled to other states at prices that outcompete current Mexican supplies. The extent of such smuggling will depend on a number of factors, including the response of the U.S. federal government.
5. If marijuana is smuggled from California to other states, it could undercut sales of Mexican marijuana in much of the U.S., cutting DTOs' marijuana export revenues by more than 65 percent and probably by 85 percent or more.

The director of the U.S. Office on National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP), Gil Kerlikowske, applauded the new RAND report and emphasized that "this report shows that despite the millions spent on marketing the idea, legalized marijuana won't reduce the revenue or violence generated by Mexican drug-trafficking organizations." However, with the release of RAND's new paper, many analysts have zeroed in on the report's fifth key finding listed above: "If marijuana is smuggled from California to other states, it could undercut the sales of Mexican marijuana in much of the U.S., cutting DTOs' marijuana export revenues by more than 65 percent and probably 85 percent or more," a scenario which RAND estimates could lead to a 20 percent loss of total drug export revenues for drug trafficking organizations. On the Foreign Policy blog, Joshua Keating asks, "with this caveat, couldn't the report be viewed less as a case against legalization in California than an argument for extending it nationwide?"

Many proponents of the end of marijuana prohibition are calling Proposition 19 just that--a first step toward the end of prohibition nation-wide and the beginning of an exit strategy from the "disastrous" war on drugs. On the other hand, opponents to Proposition 19, including Mexican President Felipe Calderon and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, argue that it will undercut international efforts to combat the drug cartels and drug trade.

Below are excerpts of quotes that both support and negate the argument that Proposition 19 will affect the revenues of international drug trafficking organizations.

Arguments in support of Proposition 19 in relation to its impact on the fight against drug cartels:

Stephen Gutwillig, California state director of the Drug Policy Alliance:

Creating an exit strategy from the disastrous war on marijuana has to start somewhere. Ending marijuana prohibition, bringing the multi-billion dollar marijuana market into the light of day and under the rule of law, will deal a major blow to criminal syndicates on both sides of the border. California can't put these cartels out of business by itself, but Prop. 19 is a crucial first step.

Former Mexican President Vicente Fox:

According to the Los Angeles Times, former President Vicente Fox is calling for legalization and regulation of all drugs as the best way to cripple the drug cartels economically. Fox recently said that "passage of Proposition 19 would be a 'great step forward' and could 'open the door to these ideas for us.'"

The Economist magazine:

...The United States remains steadfast in its commitment to the prohibition of drugs, in the face of all the evidence that this policy fails to curb their consumption while creating vast profits for organised crime. It is welcome that California is now debating before a referendum on November 2nd, whether to legalise marijuana. This newspaper would vote for the proposition, because we believe that drug addiction, like alcoholism and tobacco consumption, is properly a matter of public health rather than the criminal law.

If California votes in favour of legalisation, Mexico would be wise to follow suit (the bottom would anyway fall out of its marijuana business). The drug gangs would still be left with more lucrative cocaine and methamphetamines. But it would become easier to defeat them. And Mexicans should make no mistake: they must be defeated. The idea of going back to a tacit bargain that tolerates organised crime, favoured by some in Mexico, is inimical to the rule of law, and thus to democracy and a free society. The sooner Mexico turns its new-found sense of urgency into a more effective national policing and law-enforcement strategy the better.

Mary Anastasia O'Grady, op-ed columnist for the Wall Street Journal:

To help Mexico deal with this "antitrust" problem, the U.S. has to recognize that competition in the narcotics sector is preferable to the monopolistic syndicates that threaten the state and could move north. But this would require greater flexibility from U.S. drug warriors. ...

Mexican officials estimate that the marijuana business makes up more than half of the Mexican cartels' income. Legalizing grass in the U.S. would mean increased competition for Mexican exporters and lower profit margins, thereby depriving the monopolies of important income.

Edward Schumacher-Matos, op-ed columnist for the Washington Post:

In the upcoming California referendum on legalizing marijuana for recreational use, Mexican President Felipe Calderón and U.S. drug czar Gil Kerlikowske have something in common. Both are missing the forest for the weed. ...

Calderon's assertion that this is a hypocrisy is right, "but only if you don't see the California referendum for what it is: a step. And a very big one, considering that California represents one-seventh of American marijuana consumption and has long been a first-mover in American cultural and political trends."

But what all this means for the United States and Mexico is that more steps away from prohibition need to follow. Issues such as pricing, taxation and other drugs also need careful confronting. But marijuana and California are good beginnings.

Ruben Aguilar, former Mexican government spokesman under President Vicente Fox:

People in California will be in their supermarkets and their Walmarts with their legal pot, and down here we'll be killing each other. Things will have to change here. It makes no sense for us to keep killing.

Stephen Downing, former Los Angeles Police Department Deputy Chief of Police:

Proposition 19 is a giant step toward a much-needed, new direction for our marijuana policies. We've tried the prohibitionists' way, for over forty years, and the only result has been more and more drugs flowing into our country and more and more profits going into the pockets of organized criminals. There's one reason we don't see wine cartels growing grapes in our national parks, and that's because alcohol is legal. We have to move away from prohibition and toward controlling and regulating the market for marijuana, just as when we ended alcohol prohibition to put Al Capone's smuggling buddies out of business.

Arguments against Proposition 19 in relation to its impact on the fight against drug cartels:

Both Mexican President Calderon and Colombian President Santos have come out against Proposition 19, claiming that its passage would generate a "peculiar paradox" and a "hypocrisy" if the United States legalizes consumption domestically, but still encourages other countries to combat drug production within their borders. The two presidents have argued that such a decision would have international implications and therefore cannot be made unilaterally. "Unilaterally we cannot legalize drugs because they are a problem not only for national security but also have international implications," noted President Santos.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon:

"I think they have very little moral authority to condemn Mexican farmers who out of hunger are planting marijuana to feed the insatiable [U.S.] appetite for drugs."

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos:

Legalizing marijuana in California as the region combats illegal drug use and trafficking will "generate a peculiar paradox."

"How does one explain to indigenous people that they are not to grow marijuana at the risk of being thrown into jail, but that in the richest state of the United States, they have legalized its production, sale, and consumption?"

Secretary General of the Organization of American States Jose Miguel Insulza:

While Secretary General Insulza has argued that "the war on drugs, as it has been carried out, has not produced the expected results," and that the fundamental flaw of the strategy is that we have not attacked the finances of the narcotraffickers, he appears to come out against Proposition 19. He has said that if Prop 19 passes, it will mean people abroad will no longer be ready to "fight to their death against a product that is going to be legal at the other side of the border."

On July 19 and 20, vice-ministers of defense and similar defense officials from all over the hemisphere traveled to Santa Cruz, Bolivia, for a Preparatory Meeting of the IX Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas (CDMA). In November, all of the hemisphere’s ministers of defense – likely including U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates – will attend the CDMA in Santa Cruz. Participants in the Preparatory Meeting meet to define and agree on the conference’s agenda and to prepare the summit’s final declaration. Minutes from the meeting are available at the CDMA’s website.

The meeting’s highlights were as follows:

The CDMA’s agenda will consist of three points:

1. Consolidation of Peace, Trust, Security and Cooperation in the Americas: Defense Ministers will discuss mechanisms to strengthen peace, cooperation and security in the region, as well as transparency mechanisms in defense budgets, expenditures and arms purchases.
2. Democracy, Armed Forces, Security and Society: this point aims to discuss women’s participation and gender equality in the armed forces and defense institutions; as well as modernization, interculturality, defense education and democracy within defense systems.
3. Regional Security and Natural Disasters - Strengthening Hemispheric Cooperation: the goal is to exchange lessons from Haiti and Chile’s experience in prevention, preparation, response and reconstruction of natural disasters. Also, this item will debate regional capacity to respond to natural disasters.

The Draft Declaration includes a few points worth highlighting:

- It commits to preserve the “Spirit of Williamsburg” (the first CDMA, held in 1994 in Williamsburg, Virginia, United States, known for its declaration’s institutionalist and democratic tone), to strengthen democracy, peace, security, solidarity, and cooperation among the nations of the hemisphere.

- It promotes a gender perspective as a crosscutting issue in all defense environments.

- It stresses confidence-building measures as an instrument of cooperation and peace in the hemisphere. It acknowledges the set of confidence and security building measures recently approved by the South American Defense Council, which establish mechanisms for information-sharing on defense budgets, defense expenditures and arms purchases, among others.

- It celebrates Nicaragua’s declaration to be a country free of antipersonnel landmines, following a long cleanup effort from the country’s 1980s civil war, making Central America the first region free of landmines in the world.

- It mentions the need to achieve full implementation of the Inter-American Convention on Transparency in Conventional Weapons.

- In light of Haiti’s and Chile’s natural disasters, it supports the need to strengthen crisis management systems, hemispherically and internationally.

- It highlights the need to consolidate the training of civilians in defense issues, promoting the inclusion of civilian training programs in bilateral and multilateral assistance.

- It rejects the presence of illegal armed groups in the hemisphere.

- It commits to inviting Honduras, which was not invited to this year’s conference, to the next CDMA, which will take place in Uruguay.

- Finally, and perhaps most surprisingly, it also commits to inviting Cuba for the X CDMA as an “Observer State.”

Last week, the Board of Visitors for the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation (WHINSEC) held its mid-year session in Washington, DC. WHINSEC, located at Fort Benning in Columbus, Georgia, is the Defense Department's principal Spanish-language training facility for Latin American military and law-enforcement personnel. WHINSEC took over the School of the Americas, which was legally closed in 2001. Its Board of Visitors, a "federally chartered oversight committee that reports to the Department of Defense and to the U.S. Congress," is charged with reviewing the operations of the institute annually. The Board of Visitors includes "members of the Senate and House Armed Services Committees, representatives from the State Department, U.S. Southern Command, U.S. Northern Command, the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, and six members designated by the Secretary of Defense."

The members of the Board of Visitors are:

• Chairman, Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Carl Levin (D-MI)
• Ranking member of the SASC, Senator John McCain (R-AZ), or his designee. McCain designated Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)
• Chairman, House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), or his designee. Skelton designated Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA)
• Ranking member of the HASC, Rep. Howard McKeon (R-CA) or his designee. McKeon designated Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-GA)
• Secretary of State Hillary Clinton designated Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Christopher McMullen
• Commander, U.S. Southern Command, Gen. Douglas Fraser or his designee
• Commander, U.S. Northern Command, Adm. James Winnefeld, Jr., or his designee
• Commanding General, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey
• Rev. Dr. Joan Brown Campbell, Director, Dept. of Religion, Chautauqua Institution
• Dr. Johanna Mendelson Forman, Senior Associate, CSIS Americas program
• Amb. Lino Gutierrez, CEO of Gutierrez Global, LLC
• Amb. Donna Hrinak, Sr. Director for Latin American Govt Affairs, PepsiCo
• Dr. Joseph Palacios, Professor of Sociology and Anthropology, School of Foreign Service, Latin American Studies program, Georgetown University
• Amb. Charles A. Ford

WOLA fellow Lucila Santos and I attended the meeting on Thursday, which was open to the public. A few topics that were discussed at the meeting include:

• The similarities between transnational criminal organizations in Mexico and insurgencies;
• Concerns about civilian police receiving training at WHINSEC, a military institution;
• The problems that would result from releasing the names of WHINSEC students;
• U.S. cooperation with Cuba and Venezuela in Haiti;
• The role of WHINSEC in teaching the importance of imagination and critical thinking.

Here is an overview of the meeting.

Opening Remarks: Ambassador Charles Ford

Ambassador Ford opened the meeting with two reflections about where WHINSEC and the Latin American region fit into the world. First, he noted that it is hard to talk about the Latin American region because all of the countries that make it up are different. And second, he observed that the new threats in the region relate to "rules:" the rule of law, transparency, institutions, etc. According to Ambassador Ford, the struggle today is that some people prefer the "chaos and the darkness" instead of the rules.

Colonel Felix Santiago, Commandant of WHINSEC

Colonel Felix Santiago was the first to present at the meeting. His presentation emphasized that "change is constant," and therefore WHINSEC "transforms in line with the Department of Defense's strategic vision to build partner capabilities."

During the question and answer period, Colonel Santiago was asked about the challenges of and opportunities for having more interagency operations that would include not only DoD, but the Department of State, USAID and the DEA, among others. Colonel Santiago responded that it would be a "very unique and powerful opportunity" for different agencies to come together at the training level, and it would be something to "pursue aggressively."

Dr. Palacios, a professor at Georgetown University, asked Colonel Santiago about the relationship between civilian police and the military at WHINSEC and concerns that emerge from the human rights community about whether distinctions between military and police are made during trainings. Palacios continued to suggest that it would be helpful if WHINSEC issued a statement on the distinct role the institution plays in training both military and police. Colonel Santiago noted that the education provided at WHINSEC is useful to different institutions, and that civilian police understand that their responsibilities and roles are different than those of the military students.

Deputy Commander of U.S. Southern Command, Lt. General Ken Keen

Lt. General Keen focused the majority of his presentation on the U.S. military's response to the disaster in Haiti after the January earthquake and stressed the importance of collaboration among all actors--government, military, NGOs, United Nations, etc--in emergency situations.

Lt. General Keen did note that 25 Latin American countries contributed directly or indirectly to Haiti, and the United States worked with "most" of those countries. For instance, he used Venezuela as an example of a country that approached the United States for help unloading supplies from one of their ships. He said they agreed to help and "sent a photographer down to capture the image."

Lt. General Keen also mentioned that Cuba was very helpful in Haiti, especially by giving the United States overflight rights. One member of the Board of Visitors expressed that it is unfortunate that those doors only open during disasters, and asked Lt. General Keen how the United States can maximize this collaboration not just during emergencies. Keen deferred the question to the State Department representative, Kevin Whitaker, who said disasters are both opportunities for changes and for the new policies of a new administration to be exposed. While he noted that relations are not quite "there yet," he said that "the hand is open."

Commander of U.S. Northern Command, Adm. James Winnefeld, Jr.

Admiral Winnefeld began his remarks by explaining Northcom's two highest priorities: a potential terrorist attack and Mexico. According to the head of Northcom, Mexico is on a "downward slope" in terms of security and prosperity, primarily due to the corrosive influence of criminal institutions in the country. Adm. Winnefeld explained that cartels in Mexico do not only traffic drugs, and these transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) can be compared to insurgencies--they intimidate, buy off, and take care of the population in the areas they control. As a result of these similarities, Adm. Winnefeld said that many of the techniques used to counter an insurgency will be used to combat TCOs in Mexico.

Admiral Winnefeld also compared Mexico to Colombia, which he described as a country that has dealt with its existential threat, and now is merely engaged in a "criminal fight that law enforcement can largely handle." He continued to explain that this is a critical point for Mexico’s future: the situation must change from an existential threat to a criminal problem. This goal requires effective interagency effort, according to Admiral Winnefeld, where governments, non-governmental actors, Northcom and Southcom must work as partners. In this scenario, he believes that WHINSEC provides legitimacy to Mexico’s military to carry out their missions.

In response to Dr. Palacios' question about the need to factor in Mexico's "cultural reality" to the way in which we respond to the violence in Mexico, Adm. Winnefeld said: Certain principles apply that have to be mapped onto the country: people do not like or want what is happening to them, but they are stuck with it until something better comes around. The key is to treat the population as a center of gravity and to provide security so they feel comfortable to come down off the fence, but also they need economic opportunities to come down off that fence.

Adm. Winnefeld was then asked whether the new requirement to release the names of WHINSEC students would have a negative effect on attendance. Adm. Winnefeld answered that he understands the need for transparency, but WHINSEC students trust the United States to protect them. If their names are released, according to Adm. Winnefeld, we are putting them at risk, and if the names are released, there "might not be a course at all." He concluded that if we are going to be transparent, we "should be transparent about the curriculum itself and show people what we are teaching and show that we are doing the right thing."

Commanding General, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey

General Dempsey spoke briefly; highlighting the role WHINSEC plays to avoid a "failure of imagination" in dealing with security problems in the region. Colonel Santiago agreed with Gen. Dempsey, noting that imagination can be defined as "mental agility" and the "ability to confront unexpected things." Those present agreed that the education provided at WHINSEC should aim to promote critical thinking and creativity to be able to respond to unexpected and new challenges or threats.

Kevin Whitaker, Director, Office of Andean Affairs, U.S. Department of State

After the lunch break, Kevin Whitaker, Director of the Office of Andean Affairs at the U.S. State Department, gave his presentation. He began by mentioning Secretary of States’ four baskets of priorities for the Western Hemisphere: citizen safety, strengthening democratic institutions and the rule of law, climate change and the environment, and economic development.

Whitaker first mentioned the United States’ role in Bolivia, where the United States has a framework agreement with Bolivia to work in assistance, counternarcotics and trade. He continued to note that U.S.-Bolivia relations are watched by the rest of the region to see how the United States deals with difficult countries.

On Venezuela, Whitaker affirmed that the United States has been working to improve relations with the Bolivarian country, but that the Venezuelan government is not interested in having a better relationship with the United States. Instead, they are satisfied with the current level at which the relationship is right now. The United States, however, continues to promote a dialogue with them about counternarcotics, trade, oil and terrorism. Whitaker mentioned that the United States imports 10% of their oil from Venezuela; even though it is not a crucial amount, it is a significant quantity.

Whitaker then turned to Colombia, with whom the United States has a positive, strategic relation. The relationship will be recalibrated, however. He then mentioned the need to look at the human rights agenda, emphasizing the current scandals surrounding the president’s intelligence agency, DAS, and the false positives.

Frank Mora, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs

Frank Mora, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs, presented next. According to Mora, WHINSEC is important as it builds partnerships in military and law enforcement agencies. It also promotes regional cooperation by bringing together students from different countries. He emphasized that democratic governance and human rights are the cornerstone of WHINSEC.

Mora was asked about the nexus and appropriateness of using the military in public security missions. He replied that the military should not be used in law enforcement. However, as in the case of Mexico, police forces have not been up to the challenge to combat drug trafficking groups, a situation that also exists in Central American countries, such as Honduras and El Salvador. Therefore, the military are often asked to be involved in these issues. As a result, Mora explained, the United States is sensitive to the need to use the military in law enforcement because they are the last line of defense available.

In relation to Honduras, Deputy Assistant Secretary Mora confirmed that military-to-military relations have restarted between the United States and Honduras. Members of the Honduran military are traveling to the United States to participate in certain courses, and some members of the military are receiving in-country training from the United States.

This post was written by Abigail Poe and Lucila Santos

The Obama Administration has been working this spring to put its own stamp on security and counternarcotics programs for Latin America. This is starting to come together as four initiatives: the Mérida, Caribbean Basin Security, Central American Regional Security, and Colombian Security Development Initiatives. By covering several different regions of Latin America, the Obama administration believes it will "mitigate any 'balloon effect' - criminal spillover resulting from successful reductions in drug trafficking and transnational crime elsewhere in the region."

To underscore one of the goals of the Obama Administration's approach to security in the region, the State Department released a new fact sheet today on "Citizen Safety in the Western Hemisphere." The fact sheet stresses the president's commitment to working with the region, "creating practical partnerships in the hemisphere to advance shared interests and protect our citizens." The approach to citizen security that the four above-mentioned initiatives encompass includes:

• Emphasizing the need for comprehensive, evidence-based strategies that address underlying causes, not just symptoms;
• Recognizing that the absence of citizen safety undermines efforts to promote equitable economic growth and social opportunity, secure and clean sources of energy, and the strong democratic institutions needed for effective and accountable governance; and
• Focusing on making advances in citizen safety at the neighborhood level while simultaneously countering emerging transnational threats.

A State Department fact sheet on the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative (CBSI) released late last week cites three key objectives of this initiative: 1) substantially reduce illicit trafficking; 2) increase public safety and security; and 3) promote social justice. The new initiative was formally launched today at the inaugural U.S.-Caribbean Security Dialogue in Washington.

The meeting was attended by high-level representatives from 15 Caribbean Community countries, the Dominican Republic, and other non-Caribbean observer nations. According to the State Department's release announcing this meeting, "in addition to law enforcement cooperation, partnership activities will include important elements of judicial reform, as well as development and education components intended to provide at-risk youth of the region with improved prospects for social and economic inclusion."

At the meeting, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Arturo Valenzuela told officials that "security must be advanced through our commitment to partner with those who are courageously battling drug cartels, gangs and other criminal networks throughout the Americas." The Assistant Secretary continued to note that the initiative's success "'will require the allocation of adequate resources for enhanced law enforcement and prevention programs' as well as judicial reforms," according to AFP coverage of the meeting.

In the 2010 Foreign Operations Appropriations bill, Congress allocated "not less than $37 million" for CBSI, though in various platforms, the State Department has emphasized that it is "fully committed" to fund the President's $45 million request for 2010. The President asked for an additional $79 million for CBSI in his 2011 budget request. According to the Congressional Budget Justification for Fiscal Year 2011, of the $79 million, $17 million would be used economic and social assistance and $62 million for military and police assistance, though a detailed breakdown has yet to be released indicating how much each of the 15 countries in the Caribbean region will receive and, specifically, what it will pay for.

Though this meeting was previously scheduled, it coincides with the recent violence in Jamaica, as its government seeks to arrest and extradite to the United States one of its top drug lords, Christopher "Dudus" Coke. Over the past four days, violent clashes between the Jamaican security forces and armed gangs have resulted in over 50 deaths. Many analysts have linked the violence to "the government's risky tolerance of, and even collusion with, Coke and similar gang bosses who lord over Kingston neighborhoods." Others note that drug traffickers in Jamaica "fill a void left by the Jamaican government's inaction or negligence. They pay for basic services and hand out money. Jamaican youths, especially, complain of a lack of jobs or other opportunities that drives them into the gangs."

Assistant Secretary Valenzuela said at today's U.S.-Caribbean meeting, "I take note of the challenges that Jamaica is facing." However, it is still unclear whether the Obama administration's initiatives in the region will be able to truly address the underlying social, economic and political problems that allow drug traffickers like "Dudus" Coke to function with impunity and prosper in the region.

As part of "Just the Facts," the Center for International Policy, the Latin America Working Group Education Fund and the Washington Office on Latin America released a new joint publication today. Waiting for Change: Trends in U.S. Security Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean (PDF in English or Spanish) takes a critical look at the Obama administration's policies toward Latin America and the Caribbean in the past year, and offers recommendations for the future. In the report, the three organizations write,

Our fifteen years of documenting trends in the U.S. military relationship with Latin America, through Democratic and Republican administrations, have convinced us that the underlying, structural relationship is only affected to a limited degree by the White House's current inhabitant. It has also convinced us that a growing trend towards the militarization of U.S. foreign policy spans administrations. Despite this reality, we are disappointed that the Obama Administration has not taken strong, identifiable actions to improve relationships with the region. We still hold out hope for change. But it must come soon.

The three organizations lay out the following recommendations for how the Obama Administration can set things right:

• Deliver on rebuilding Haiti;
• Decisively shift aid away from military spending towards people's needs;
• Stand up for human rights--including with our closest allies;
• Through actions as well as rhetoric, demonstrate a willingness to change counternarcotics policy and listen to our partners;
• Support human rights and accountability in Honduras;
• Reassure Latin American governments and publics about U.S. military intentions;
• Support Latin American efforts that embrace a broader approach on citizen security;
• Encourage diplomacy and negotiation;
• Allow for the free exchange of people and ideas with Cuba; and
• Put immigration reform back on the agenda--and move it forward.

Here is the press release:

New Report Evaluates the Obama Administration's Relations With Latin America; Finds a Heavy Emphasis on Military Programs, Insufficient Attention to Human Rights

A year ago, at a summit of Latin America's leaders, President Obama hit a note that resonated well with his counterparts: "I pledge to you that we seek an equal partnership. There is no senior partner and junior partner in our relations."

After that hopeful moment, though, the new administration stumbled at the starting gate. 2009 was a rough year for U.S. policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean. Many governments accused the Obama Administration of inattention, vacillation on democracy and human rights, and arrogance, especially after it secretly negotiated a defense agreement with Colombia.

But there is still opportunity to reset the relationship, according to the authors of Waiting for Change. The Latin America Working Group Education Fund, the Center for International Policy, and the Washington Office on Latin America lay out a series of recommendations for resetting relations with the region. The three organizations have collaborated for 12 years on a joint military-assistance monitoring project, "Just the Facts," which maintains a constantly updated online regional security resource at www.justf.org.

"In 2010, 47 percent of the United States' more than $3 billion in aid to Latin America is going to militaries and police forces," says Adam Isacson, senior associate for security policy at WOLA and one of the authors of Waiting for Change. "That's the highest proportion in a decade. Add to that a new military-basing agreement signed last October with Colombia, and the main face that most of the region is seeing from the Obama administration is a military one."

"The Obama Administration's human rights policy in Latin America has been missing in action," adds Lisa Haugaard, executive director of LAWGEF. "With the weak, contradictory response to the coup in Honduras, and a stand-by-our-man approach towards allied governments in Mexico and Colombia, the first year has been disappointing. Now that the President's human rights team is in place, we're hoping to see a greater willingness to take action. The Obama Administration must be strong on human rights, especially with allied governments receiving large amounts of security assistance."

Adds Abigail Poe, deputy director of CIP, "Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderón's visit to Washington made clear that our anti-drug policy needs fixing, and that our neighbors' proposals offer a starting point. From Mexico to Bolivia, we are hearing that U.S. aid should be less narrowly focused on short-term drug-supply reductions, more oriented toward strengthening governance and justice, and more open to alternative approaches to the entire problem--including demand reduction at home."

"We continue to see an increasing U.S. military role in relations with the region," says Joy Olson, executive director of WOLA. "This is true whether the issue is military presence on the U.S.-Mexico border, the U.S. Southern Command's effort to lead an inter-agency approach, the emergence of new aid programs in the defense budget, or a declared U.S. military interest in helping the region confront internal threats like gangs."

The report notes that some signs of positive change began to emerge in early 2010, as Obama Administration nominees finally entered posts with Latin America responsibilities. Waiting for Change lays out recommendations for how these officials can set things right: in earthquake-battered Haiti, Honduras, Cuba, the annual foreign aid budget, human rights, counternarcotics, and immigration.

Waiting for Change calls for a renewed emphasis on diplomatic engagement, including with governments considered to be adversaries, less emphasis on military-to-military ties, generous disaster relief and development assistance, and greater transparency and consultation about U.S. military intentions with the region.

Click here to read it in English o haga clíc aquí para leerla en español.

On Tuesday, heads of state from South America met in Buenos Aires, Argentina for a summit meeting of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR). Many topics were discussed at the summit, including the election of its first secretary general, Arizona's controversial immigration law, Argentina's right to the Falkland Islands (Malvinas), and Paraguay's fight against the leftist guerrilla group, the Paraguayan People's Army (EPP).

Colombian President Álvaro Uribe did not attend the summit, and was represented by Foreign Minister Jamie Bermúdez, who urged UNASUR to focus on export restrictions, the movement of people, and nations meddling in internal affairs of other countries. "One can see that we are very worried about the way in which we should tackle the world from UNASUR, when one suspects, intuits, and sees that we have internal difficulties that need to be resolved among brother nations," he said.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez also urged UNASUR countries to "put aside their 'ideological positions' in order for the budding regional bloc to move forward."

UNASUR's first secretary general
One of the first items on the agenda at the UNASUR summit was its unanimous consent to name ex-President of Argentina, Nestor Kirchner, to be UNASUR's first secretary general "in hopes that the 12-nation UNASUR group can consolidate into a regional force for unity, development and democracy-building," according to the Washington Post.

UNASUR's founding treaty states that the secretary general must focus solely on regional matters during the two-year term, and not on national politics. However, Kirchner, who was president of Argentina from 2003 to 2007, is currently a Congressman in Argentina's lower house and has "all but declared" his intention to run in Argentina's presidential elections next year to succeed his wife, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. In order to carry out his obligations as secretary general of UNASUR, Kirchner will have to resign from or ask for a leave of absence from his position in Congress.

Honduras
One point of contention at the summit was Honduras. Many of the South American leaders said they would boycott the upcoming Latin American-European Union summit in Spain if Honduran President Porfirio Lobo attends. Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa noted that many of UNASUR's member states, not including Colombia and Peru, are still uneasy about Lobo, who was elected to replace ousted President Manuel Zelaya. According to Brazilian President Lula da Silva, "If Spain officially invites Lobo, Brazil is not going. Lobo has not given any indication that he wants to change anything in relation to Zelaya's amnesty."

Arizona, Falkland Islands, and Paraguay

In various declarations, the South American leaders expressed their condemnation of Arizona's new immigration law, confirmed the rights of Argentina to the Falkland Islands, and manifested their solidarity with the government of Paraguay, stating their "total and absolute support for the constitutional government of Fernando Lugo" in its "fight against the criminal violence that affects five departments in the country," referring to the Paraguayan People's Army's (EPP) activities in northern Paraguay.

According to the declaration, Arizona's immigration law opens the door to the "discretional detention of people based on racial, ethnic, phenotypic, language and migratory status reasons under the questionable concept of ‘reasonable doubt.'" An Argentine government press release also states that the law "constitutes a flagrant violation of human rights."

The UNASUR bloc also reaffirmed its "firm support to the legitimate rights" of Argentina to the Falkland Islands and rejected the natural resource exploration that the United Kingdom is currently conducting "illegally" in the waters surrounding the islands.