Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Russia strengthens ties with Latin America

Over the past month, the U.S. and regional press has been paying closer attention to Russia's relations with such Latin American countries such as Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Cuba and even Colombia.

In September, Russian Vice-Prime Minister Igor Sechin traveled to Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba to meet with his counterparts in each country to discuss the potential increase in economic, military, and political cooperation between each country and Russia. In September, two Russian T-160 strategic bombers visited Venezuela for a joint military exercise and a Russian navy squadron is currently en route to the Caribbean for joint exercises with the Venezuelan navy. Russia also has begun preliminary discussions with Cuba to help the country develop its own space center, has announced it will replace the Nicaraguan army's aging weaponry, and has started talks with Venezuela about developing a peaceful nuclear energy program.

Bolivian President Evo Morales recently announced that he will seek Russia's aid for the country's counternarcotics program, and Colombia's Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos even traveled to Russia to discuss defense and counternarcotics cooperation.

Below are links to media coverage from the past month about Russia's renewed interest in Latin America. With the exception of the Venezuelan-Russian military exercise, U.S. officials have sought to downplay this interest in their public statements. It is apparent, however, that the U.S. government is watching these developments closely.

Analysis:

The Guardian: The cold war comes to the Caribbean

Front Page Magazine: Chávez's dangerous liaisons

Semana (Colombia): Calentando la guerra fria: Heating up the cold war

New Statesman: Cuban missile crisis II?

Venezuela:

El Universal (Venezuela): Presidente Dmitri Medvedev visitará Venezuela en noviembre: President Dimitri Medvedev will visit Venezuela in November

AP: Russia: Arms sales to Venezuela are defensive

AFP: Cooperación nuclear entre Moscu y Caracas desata la pol?©mica: Nuclear cooperation between Moscow and Caracas unleashes controversy

AP: Venezuela to build nuclear technology with Russia

New York Times: Russia loans Venezuela $1 billion for military

Reuters: Putin offers nuclear energy help to Chávez

BBC: Russia and Venezuela boost ties

AP: Putin, Chávez discuss ways to constrain U.S. power

EFE: Hablan Chávez y Medvedev de cooperación economía y militar: Chávez and Medvedev discuss economic and military cooperation

AP: Crece alianza Venezuela-Rusia: Venezuelan-Russian alliance grows

New York Times: Russia and Venezuela confirm joint military exercises

Nicaragua:

AP: Russia to modernize Nicaraguan military's arsenal

El Nuevo Diario (Nicaragua): Condoleezza despectiva con Ortega: Condoleezza derogatory toward Ortega

El Nuevo Diario: Viceprimer ministro de Rusia visitará este miercoles Nicaragua: Russian Vice-Prime Minister to visit Nicaragua on Wednesday

Cuba:

Reuters: Russia to help Cuba build space center

Bolivia:

AP: Ambassador: Russia looking to boost Bolivia ties

BBC Mundo: Bolivia y Rusia, nuevos aliados: Bolivia and Russia, new allies

La Prensa (Panama): Bolivia busca apoyo de Rusia: Bolivia looks for Russian support

Colombia:

El Espectador (Colombia):Moscu propone a Colombia combatir el creciente trafico de cocaína: Moscow makes a proposal to Colombia to combat the rise in narcotrafficking

El Tiempo (Colombia): Fortalecer cooperacion de seguridad, objetivo de viaje del Ministro de Defensa a Rusia: Strengthening security cooperation, objective of the Defense Minister's trip to Russia

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

U.S. questions Venezuelan and Bolivian counter-narcotics strategies

Every year, the President is required by the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 to submit to Congress an annual report identifying (a) major drug-producing or transit countries and (b) those countries not "cooperating" with U.S. counternarcotics measures and subject to sanctions. Using the "International Narcotics Control Strategy Report" published by the Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) every March, the "Majors List" is compiled each year and presented to the Secretary of State for consideration before being approved by the President and sent to Congress.

Of the twenty countries that made the "Majors List" last year, only Venezuela and Burma were found to have "failed demonstrably" to cooperate. While making it to the second "non-cooperating" list stipulates that a country not receive U.S. assistance under the foreign operations appropriations act, the President can reinstate assistance if the "provision of such assistance is vital to the U.S. interests." Last year, President Bush determined that while Venezuela "failed demonstrably" to cooperate, "support for programs to aid Venezuela's democratic institutions is vital to the national interests of the United States," and therefore assistance was not revoked.

This yearly process is going on right now and we should expect to see the list for 2009 sometime next week, which coincides with a recent increase in coverage of the United States' criticism of Venezuela's and Bolivia's drug policies. While Venezuela and Burma are most likely to make the "non-cooperating" list for 2009, Bolivia is a wild card.

Recent U.S. criticism of Venezuela:
According to Reuters, the United States accused Venezuela's government "of failing to fight back against drug gangs moving huge amounts of cocaine through the South American country." This criticism stems from the decline in drug seizures from 63 tons in 2005 to 35 tons in 2007 and what the United States has cited as being a "more than 16-fold increase in the amount of cocaine departing Venezuela by air since 2002." The dispute continued, with President Chavez threatening to kick the U.S. ambassador out of the country and dismissing White House drug czar John Walters' criticisms as 'stupid'. According to the an Associated Press article, Chavez insists "that Venezuela doesn't need U.S. help in fighting drug trafficking" and that Venezuelan Vice President Ramon Carrizalez said that "Venezuela is cooperating internationally - just not on the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration's terms."

Recent U.S criticism of Bolivia:
Under President Evo Morales, Bolivia has adopted a "zero cocaine, but no zero coca" policy, allowing for the cultivation of nearly 30,000 acres of coca for traditional uses, a policy which, according to Reuters, the United States has described as "permissive." However, the United States has started to critize Bolivia's drug policy as a result of a recent UN report on coca cultivation in the Andes region, which measures the cultivation in Bolivia increased by 5% in 2007 and covers 71,660 acres.

A recent article in El Espectador shows that despite the increase in drug-seizures in Bolivia from 18 tons in 2007 to 19.5 tons between January and August 2008, the U.S. government "considers that the increase in confiscations only is proportional to the increase in the production of coca" and the New York Times quoted a U.S. official saying "Let's put it this way: [Bolivia's] going in the wrong direction," in reference to Morales' drug policies.

While coca cultivation in Bolivia did increase in 2007, the UN report shows that coca cultivation also increased by 27% in Colombia and by 4% in Peru, two of the United States' main allies in the region, while confiscations increased 29% in Bolivia and decreased by 9% in Colombia and 30% in Peru. Bolivia remains far behind Colombia in increased coca cultivation and has improved its capacity to confiscate drugs in route, yet Bolivia is still being scolded by the United States.

Whether or not Bolivia makes it on the "failed demonstrably" to cooperate list, the recent U.S. criticism of President Morales' drug policies and belittling of Bolivia's increase in drug seizures so far in 2008 in light of the records of Peru and Colombia makes us wonder if all of this is just because Bolivia wants to pursue a different, yet effective, drug control approach, rather than do everything the United States asks?

You can read more of the recent coverage of the United States' criticism of both Venezuela's and Bolivia's drug policy here.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

President Chávez warns the Fourth Fleet to steer clear of Venezuelan waters

On Sunday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez warned the United States' Fourth Fleet to steer clear of Venezuelan waters.

The U.S. Navy officially reestablished the Fourth Fleet on June 12 of this year. According to a U.S. Southern Command press release, the Fourth Fleet will be headquartered in Mayport, Florida, and "will not involve an increase in forces assigned in Mayport, or result in any permanently assigned ships or aircraft." However, President Chávez has been speaking out against the arrival of the Fourth Fleet in Latin America and the Caribbean since the announcement of its reestablishment.

Below is a transcription and translation of the segment of President Chávez's television show, "Aló, Presidente," in which he discussed the Fourth Fleet and Venezuela's newly acquired Russian Sukhoi fighter jets:

The Fourth Fleet. The Fourth Fleet. Incidentally, the Commander of the Fourth Fleet recently said that they were coming to navigate the brown water - the brown water is the water of the rivers. The gringo fleets have various components: deep water fleets, or blue water; green water fleets - that is the coastal water; and the brown water fleets. Well, the Commander of the Fourth Fleet said that they were coming to navigate the brown water. Well, any gringo ship that sails into brown waters will turn brown, because it will sink to the bottom of the brown water. It will not pass through here, it will not pass through here, through here it will not pass. Don't be mistaken by us.

...

We are advancing, advancing in this political battle. In this battle for Venezuela against the imperialist threat. The Fourth Fleet. The necessity to strengthen our Armed Forces, to continue strengthening. We are strengthening and they know this, the military, from the highest command, to the middle command and the troops. Well, here's an example: the tank battalion that surrounds us. There are three basic principles for a soldier. Ambassador, you know them. And I, as a tank soldier, will never forget them. First, move, a tank battalion has to move a lot. If it does not move, it is dead. Second, to shoot - fire power, mobility, fire power. And third, communication. The extent of space ... requires permanent communication. Well, if for instance some of our tanks fired, if for instance some moved, they did not communicate. Now, you will see that in the Ayana Battalion, for example, we are repairing the radios and the cannons and updating the ammunition. They're for defensive purposes. We are not going to attack anyone.

We already have 24 Sukhoi aircraft. Yesterday, the Commander of the Air Force told me that we have completed the Sukhoi fleet. And now with our pilots and our crews and our missiles. We have already begun test firing the missiles ... and they go all the way to the Caribbean, from here. There is a very long arm now.

On the other hand, the F-16s go 15 kilometers, 14 kilometers. This is not very far. And there is a missile that is called 'shoot and forget about it.' It goes alone because it is a computer and the computer has a camera and it can see where it is going.

And now, during the last trip to Moscow, in addition to the oil and energy agreements that were made with the large Russian businesses, ... we have also signed a new military cooperation agreement and the missiles have already begun to arrive. I will show them to you later, I will show them to everyone. For one, I will show them to the the Fourth Fleet that wants to pass through here. AHA! Well, and how are they going to get through? How? With the ammunition? Where, where are they going to pass? How will they get through? They are not going to pass. They are not going to pass. So, forget about it.

I hope that the next government of the United States, I hope the next government of the United States understands that a revolution is happening in Latin America. Now, thank God and history that it will be a peaceful revolution. Peaceful. But not unarmed. Don't forget it.

Monday, July 28, 2008

The feud continues between Venezuelan President Chávez and Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos

The feud between Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos continues after Santos returned from a five day visit to Washington. On Sunday, Chávez took time on his program "Alo, presidente" to criticize the Colombian government, taking a stab at Juan Manuel Santos, who, according to President Chávez, is "a dangerous threat to peace" in Latin America.

As can be seen in this, this and this article, the back and forth between Chávez and Santos has been going on for years, most spectacularly in October 2007, during an earlier Santos trip to Washington. At an event at the Inter-American Dialogue, during a time when President Alvaro Uribe had authorized Chávez to facilitate hostage exchange talks with the FARC guerrillas, Santos had said that the Colombian government had asked Chávez to stop trying to use his role to score propaganda points.

Since then, Chávez has called Santos a "warmonger" and has elicited Colombian President Alvaro Uribe's urging that Colombian officials be prudent in their remarks about Venezuela, according to the Associated Press.

This time Santos visited Washington, he was careful not to mention the "C-word," as he called it at an event at the Center for American Progress. According to the Washington Times, when asked about Chávez, Santos said "Every time I mention [Mr. Chávez's] name here, there's a scandal."

However, President Chávez still took the opportunity to slam Santos after the recent Washington trip. The following quotes are translated excerpts from an EFE article (printed in La Prensa (Panama)) titled "Chávez implicitly suggests that [Colombia] dismiss its minister":

Santos is "totally subordinated to Washington and this is very dangerous for the peace of this continent, very dangerous, and (nevertheless) he wants to be the president of Colombia; you can see the ambition for power in his eyes."

"The Colombian Minister of Defense is a man who says that we are enemies of Colombia. Recently, he was in Washington and he spent five days there (because) he wants to be the president of Colombia and he is the owner of newspapers, he is the oligarchy from the extreme right."

[Santos'] "total subordination to Washington . . . does harm to Colombia, does harm to South America, does harm to Latin America."

Monday, July 21, 2008

Venezuela ranks high among Russia's top arms purchasers

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez heads to Russia today to buy more than $2 billion in arms. This is an increase in the $3 billion Venezuela spent in the previous three years, from 2005-2007. The U.S. has been worrying over Venezuela's military buildup, and actually stopped selling weapons to the country in 2006.

Speaking of arms, Chavez will visit Spain as part of his Russia trip where he said that he just wants to hug the King, referencing a previous incident where Spain's King Juan Carlos de Borbon told him to shut up.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Civil-Military Relations Roundup

Argentina's defense minister, Nilda Garré, and president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, at the annual civil-military "comradeship dinner."
  • Argentina: [A possible military pay raise] will be the central point at the traditional military dinner [the annual "comradeship dinner"], in which the entire national cabinet, Supreme Court judges and legislators share tables with the main military commanders. The appearance of the salary question as a fundamental concern at all levels, at a moment of political upheaval [Argentina's agricultural crisis], is taken by the officers as a symbol that the barracks' doors are closed, and have been for many years, to coup-plotting adventures. With no greater crises in view, the dinner's climate will be marked by a possible announcement about salaries."
  • Argentina: "The Minister of Defense ordered the Army High Command to relieve three officers of their command in the V Infantry Brigade (Salta), if it is proven that they tried to destroy a guard logbook in that city's Military Hospital. ... In the hospital was found a guard logbook corresponding to the 1976-1983 military dictatorship period."

  • Bolivia: "The government last night accused the Podemos and UN opposition parties of trying to split the armed forces and seek to pit them against the police, through a Senate committee's investigation of a [dynamite] attack on a communication medium [television station] in Yacuiba. ... They denied that Army Lieutenant Georges Nava, who is detained with 11 other people, is responsible for the deed. ... Yesterday [July 8] information on Nava's flash memory came to light indicating that the [Morales] government has the unconditional support of perhaps only three of the 56 regimental commanders."
  • Brazil: "250 soldiers began to leave [Rio de Janeiro's violent Providencia favela], obeying the order of a federal judicial tribunal that considered soldiers' participation in police functions to be unconstitutional. On Thursday June 26 the Federal Regional Tribunal's deadline for the Army to vacate the area completely will expire. The soldiers' presence to support a project sponsored by a political ally of Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was strongly criticized by the opposition, the press and Providencia's own inhabitants. The neighborhood's residents organized violent protests against the soldiers who had been there, accusing them of abuses of power and of being allies of narcotrafficking gangs.
  • Guatemala: "In his speech, [President Álvaro Colom assured that his government will support itself on 'a new modernized Army to recover diverse geograhic areas of the country' that are under the influence of organized crime gangs."

  • Mexico: "The debacle in Santiago in Sinaloa state, a stronghold of drug traffickers, is one of a series of blunders by Mexican soldiers waging a bloody campaign against narcotics cartels — a crackdown that the U.S. Congress is looking at supporting with up to $1.6 billion. Since President Felipe Calderon took office in December 2006 and sent out 25,000 troops to take on the mafias, soldiers have killed at least 13 unarmed civilians."
  • Peru: "A debate blew up in Peru after the government's decision to send the armed forces into the streets to reinforce security in the face of a July 9 national strike, in the belief that demonstrators opposing President Alan García will commit acts of violence."
  • Venezuela: "Venezuelan military officers have expressed growing alarm at attempts by President Hugo Chávez to turn the armed forces into a political instrument of his socialist revolution."
  • Venezuela: "Hundreds of Venezuelan military officers are no longer assigned duties and have been relegated to their homes, quietly pushed aside for their dissent under President Hugo Chavez, according to former military commanders and a watchdog group."
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