On Monday, October 19th, the constitutional chamber of the Nicaraguan Supreme Court ruled to lift a ban on re-election by deeming it "unenforceable." The ruling opens the door for President Daniel Ortega to run for re-election in 2011 and was immediately condemned by Sandinista-government's opposition as an illegal political maneuvering intended to avoid having to get the vote for ending term limits approved by the national assembly and passed in a national referendum, both of which appeared unlikely, as indicated by Bloggings by Boz.

Confronted with increasing criticism about the ruling, President Ortega announced that the ruling "is unappealable" and "written in stone," and encouraged his critics to relax and prepare to run against him in the 2011 presidential elections.

Since the ruling, however, the United States Department of State, U.S. ambassador to Nicaragua, Robert Callahan, and Senator John Kerry (D-MA), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, have joined in expressing concern about the recent ruling. Their statements have led to protests outside the U.S. Embassy in Managua and calls for the U.S. ambassador to be expelled. As the Miami Herald reports, "For Sandinistas here (in Nicaragua), the comments by the U.S. ambassador are part of the United States' legacy of continual interventionist policies toward Nicaragua. During the first Sandinista government of the 1980s, the United States funneled money to the contras, who fought to overthrow the leftist regime."

The Nicaraguan government has not indicated that they will expel the U.S. ambassador, though President Ortega quickly blamed Ambassador Callahan and the State Department for instigating the attacks on the U.S. Embassy, stating that "It was not us who started this polemic that led to protests in the country. It was them (the United States) who started it with the statement in Washington and the discourse of the Ambassador in Managua."

Below are excerpts of the statements made by the the U.S. Department of State, Ambassador Callahan, and Senator Kerry.

On October 22nd, the United States Department of State issued a statement expressing concern about the situation in Nicaragua:

We share the concern of many Nicaraguans that this situation is part of a larger pattern of questionable and irregular governmental actions, beginning before the flawed municipal elections of November 2008, that threatens to undermine the foundations of Nicaraguan democracy and calls into question the Nicaraguan government's commitment to uphold the Inter-American Democratic Charter. The ruling appears to short circuit, through legal maneuverings, the open and transparent consideration by the Nicaraguan people of the possibility for presidential re-election.

As we approach the first anniversary of the November 2008 municipal elections, it is important to note that decisions that have such a profound impact on democratic governance should be taken in a manner that fosters a sense of legitimacy and ownership among those who are governed. Attempts to short circuit constitutional authority, regardless of ideology or country, threaten democratic governance and are of concern to all members of the Organization of American States.

The United States' ambassador to Nicaragua, Robert Callahan, told a group of businessmen that "From our point of view, the Supreme Court acted improperly and with unusual speed, in secret, with the participation of judges from only one political movement and without any public debate or discussion."

In response to the protests outside the U.S. Embassy, Ambassador Callahan announced that he will not leave Managua, despite calls for him to be expelled. "I am staying here to continue my functions as the U.S. Ambassador," he said. He also noted that "no one has the right to attack an embassy; an embassy is sovereign territory of another country and the protests were violent... Protest yes, but please, peacefully."

Senator John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, also condemned the recent ruling by the Nicaraguan Supreme Court and compared President Ortega to the leaders of the de facto government in Honduras:

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega's manipulation of the Nicaraguan Supreme Court this week to circumvent constitutional limits on his term in office reeks of the authoritarianism of the past. Coming on the heels of universally condemned municipal elections last year, his power grab deepens a crisis that Nicaragua can ill afford.

Nicaragua and Honduras are obviously different, but unconstitutional actions are unacceptable anywhere. President Ortega appears to be following the cues of the coup-plotters in Honduras, where the president of the Congress and the military have manipulated the Supreme Court to rationalize a coup d'etat, resist the restoration of democracy, and impose martial law repression.

(This post was researched and written by CIP Intern Hannah Brodlie.)

Over the next twelve months presidential elections will take place in Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Bolivia, Honduras, Costa Rica and Brazil.

• In Uruguay the first round of legislative and presidential elections were held last Sunday. While the governing center-left Frente Amplio’s candidate, Jose Mujica, a former Tupamaro guerrilla, received a majority 47 percent of the vote, it was not the outright majority necessary to avoid a runnoff against former president Luis Lacalle, who received 28.5 percent. Pedro Bordaberry of the Colorado Party got just 17 percent, and immediately endorsed Lacalle, in an effort to avoid a Mujica victory at the runnoff, which will be held on November 29. The winner will take office on March 1, 2010.

• Chile is facing a three-way race between opposition conservative Sebastian Pinera, Eduardo Frei, the governing center-left Concertación candidate, and Marco Enriquez-Ominami, a 36 year old congressman and film producer. Enriquez-Ominami split from the governing Concertación coalition to run as an independent and is gaining in the polls. There are a total of four candidates on the ballot; the top two will end a run-off election if none wins an outright majority. The first round of voting is December 13. A poll by the Centro de Estudios de la Realidad Contemporanea (CERC) shows Enriquez-Ominami with 20 percent of the vote, and Pinera leading with 41 percent. The results confirm the likelihood of a tie between Frei and Enriquez-Ominami in the first round of voting. Reuters offers descriptions of each candidate’s positions.

• In Brazil, the presidential race remains steady, according to a September Sensus poll, with Jose Serra, Sao Paulo state governor and senior member of the opposition PSDB, at 40%, Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s chief of staff and chosen successor, at 19%, and everyone else under 10%, in a runoff scenario. In the hypothetical runoff, Bloggings by Boz notes, Serra would beat Rousseff 50% to 25%, with a quarter remaining undecided or not voting.
  Some analysts have suggested that the Dilma’s fall in popularity is due to recent scandals surrounding the Lula administrations. Lula has dropped a few points in the polls, but he still enjoys a high approval rating of 76.8 percent (down from 81.5 percent). In addition, Dilma underwent chemotherapy for lymphoma earlier this year, however her doctor announced in September that she has beaten the cancer and is in excellent health.

• In Bolivia, president Evo Morales will likely be re-elected on December 6, according to a recent poll by Equipos MORI. 46 percent of respondents said they would vote for Morales, 16 percent for former Cochabamba mayor Manfred Reyes Villa of the New Republican Force (NRF), and 8 percent for Samuel Doria Medina of the National Unity Front (FUN). A quarter of respondents were undecided. Bolivia’s first indigenous President and former coca-grower, Morales was elected in December 2005 as the candidate for Movement to Socialism (MAS).

• President of Colombia Alvaro Uribe, popular for his hardline security policies, has still yet to announce formally whether he intends to run for a third term next year. Colombia's Constitutional Court approved a referendum on whether to amend the constitution to allow Uribe to run again. However, they will not likely rule on the legality of the bid, clearing him to run, until early next year. Electoral authorities say they need at least two months to organize the re-election referendum, which means that the referendum could take place concurrently with March 2010 legislative voting, only two months before the presidential poll. The president's approval rating is 78 percent, and an Ipsos poll suggests that he would win if the election were held today. In a referendum vote, 65% say they would turn out and of those, 88% say they would vote in favor of allowing reelection.
           
  The Colombian newsmagazine Semana recently published a poll of candidate preferences, both with and without Uribe in the running. According the poll, in an election without Uribe, the top three candidates are (in order of popularity) Juan Manuel Santos, Andres Felipe Arias and Gustavo Petro. The first two have served in Uribe's cabinet; the third is the nominee of the country's main leftist opposition party. In a scenario in which Uribe does run - in which case Santos and Arias would not - the current president wins by a landslide; the distant runners-up are Gustavo Petro, Liberal Party nominee Rafael Pardo and Conservative Party politician Noemí Sanin.

• In Venezuela, legislative elections are scheduled for December 2010. The opposition has tried to present a united front, the Mesa de la Unidad Democrática, and decided not to boycott this year’s elections as they did in 2005, resulting in a legislature almost totally controlled by President Chávez's supporters since then. They believe that due to Chavez’s recent decrease in popularity, documented by a number of polls, they can win a majority. Both the opposition and Chávez have mentioned the posssibility of moving up the election date to earlier in the year. 

• Elections in Honduras remain uncertain. The Micheletti regime, which took power in a June 28 coup, insists it will hold presidential and legislative elections on November 29, as planned. However, the international community will not recognize the results of the elections unless deposed president Manuel Zelaya is reinstated. However, according to a CID-Gallup poll, if elections were held today, Porfirio Lobo Sosa of the National Party would be elected president with 59 percent of the vote. Lobo is 16 points ahead of his competition, Elvin Santos of the Liberal Party, and Zelaya’s former vice president. While both Zelaya and Santos are from the same party, Santos has distanced himself from the deposed president since the coup.

• Elections will be held in Costa Rica in February. Laura Chinchilla, former vice president and candidate for the governing Partido Liberacion Nacional (PLN), is indisputably in the lead with 43 percent of voter support, according to a poll published by La República in August. Otton Solis, founder of the Partido de Accion Ciudadana and known for his opposition to the free-trade agreement with the U.S. that current president Oscar Arias helped push through, is at 26 percent. According to the same La República poll, 72 percent of voters support the idea of a female president, a slight increase from April.

Seven Latin American countries will hold presidential elections in the next 12 months. Analysts are watching the polls closely to see if the region will continue its movement to the left, or if more moderate or right-wing candidates will prevail.

While the last wave of elections overwhelmingly elected candidates from the left and center-left, an article in El Nuevo Herald argues that moderate candidates are gaining ground in many countries: "As of now, the majority of campaigns appear to be based more in the economic situation than ideology. And the influence of leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in the region may have reached its high point with [the 2008 peak of] high oil prices."

The article concludes that "a large part of analysts agree that the next elections probably will confirm that the majority of the Latin American left is democratic and that Chavez's version of '21st Century Socialism' probably will not extend beyond the territory it already controls in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua."

Here is a calendar of upcoming elections in the region, leading candidates, the most recent polls, and relevant excerpts from El Nuevo Herald's article:

Uruguay: October 25, 2009

• "In Uruguay, José Mujica, imprisoned between 1973 and 1985 for his guerrilla activities with the Tupamaros and now candidate for the Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition [of leftist parties that backed President Tabaró Vásquez], appears poised for a second round against the center-right ex-President Luis Alberto Lacalle if neither win a majority in the first round. Muijca has run his campaign in a pragmatic way that favors some private investment in state businesses, while Lacalle has presented himself as a centrist that looks to maintain the majority of the country's broad social benefits."

Recent poll (8/24/09)

• José Mujica (Broad Front) - 44%
• Luis Alberto Lacalle (National Party) - 35%
• Pedro Bordaberry (Colorado Party) - 10%

Honduras: November 29, 2009

• "In Honduras, Elvin Santos, from the Partido Liberal (Liberal Party), was leading Porfirio Lobo, from the Partido Nacional (National Party), until liberal President Manuel Zelaya was ousted and obligated to go into exile on June 28th. Lobo has an advantage in the polls, while Santos has fought to unify his party, divided between supporters and opponents of Zelaya, before the elections on November 29th."
• The United States and the Organization of American States have both expressed concern regarding the legitimacy of the upcoming elections in Honduras if they are carried out under the de facto coup government of Roberto Micheletti.

Recent poll (8/31/09)

• Porfirio Lobo (National Party) - 42%
• Elvin Santos (Liberal Party) - 37%

Chile: December 11, 2009

• "In Chile, center-right businessman Sebastián Piñera, one of the owners of LAN airlines, is ahead in the polls of Eduardo Frei, a candidate of the coalition party of Bachelet and Marco Enríquez-Ominami, from the Coalición por el Cambio (Coalition for Change), of the center-left." Piñera lost the 2005 election in a runoff with President Michele Bachelet.

Recent Poll (9/8/09)

• Sebastián Piñera (Alliance for Chile) - 37%
• Eduardo Frei (Concertación) - 25%
• Marco Enríquez-Ominami (Coalition for Change) - 18%

Bolivia: December 6, 2009

• "It is almost certain that the left will win in Bolivia, where even the most outspoken critics of President Evo Morales predict his reelection on December 6th and that he will continue carrying the country towards Chávez's '21st Century Socialism.'"

Recent poll (9/4/09)

• Evo Morales - 57.7%
• Samuel Doria Medina (National Unity Front) - 9.7%
• Manfred Reyes Villa (New Republican Force) - 8.6%
• Jorge Quiroga (Social and Democratic Power) - 7.2%

Costa Rica: February 2010

• "In Costa Rica, it appears that the candidate of President Oscar Arias' Partido Liberación Nacional (National Liberation Party), Laura Chinchilla, will easily defeat Ottón Solís, from the center-left Acción Ciudadana (Citizen Action), in the February elections, and that she will continue the moderate economic and social policies of Arias."

Recent poll (8/19/09)

• Laura Chinchilla (National Liberation Party) - 43%
• Ottón Solís (Citizen Action) - 26%
• Otto Guevara (Libertarian Movement) - 8%
• Rafael Ángel Calderón (Christian Social Unity) - 6%

Colombia: May 2010

• "Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, very popular and one of the true conservatives in the region, has not officially announced if he will run for reelection in May if Congress and the Supreme Court abolish the constitutional prohibition to governing more than 2 consecutive presidential terms."
• "Without Uribe, the competition will probably be between Juan Manuel Santos, the ex-Minister of Defense from the center-right, who led a popular and successful campaign against the leftist guerrillas, the FARC, and the center-left candidate Sergio Fajardo, who in his four years as mayor of Medellin was able to substantially reduce the crime rate."

Recent Poll (9/7/09)
If Uribe runs:

• Alvaro Uribe (Independent backed by several parties) - 54.5%
• Sergio Fajardo (Independent) - 8.96%

If Uribe does not run:

• Juan Manuel Santos (Social National Unity Party)- 16.5%
• Sergio Fajardo - 13%

Brazil: October 3, 2010

• "The greatest prize in play will be Brazil - the main economic and foreign policy leader in the region - where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a very popular moderate from the left, is constitutionally prohibited from running in the elections on October 3, 2010.

  Lula da Silva has designated an old collaborator, Dilma Rousseff, as the preferred candidate for his Partido de los Trabajadores (Workers' Party). But Rousseff never has held public office and is fighting against cancer. Currently, the polls give the advantage to José Serra, the Governor of Sao Paulo, the economic capital of the country, who defends free-market economics."

Recent poll (9/8/09)

• Jose Serra (Social Democracy Party) - 49.9%
• Dilma Rousseff (Workers' Party) - 25%

On Sunday, El Salvador held historic elections. For the first time in 20 years, a government led by a party other than the conservative ARENA proved victorious. And the victor was none other than the party of the former leftist guerrillas, Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN), who during El Salvador's 12 year civil war fought against the U.S. backed government. 17 years after the war ended, the FMLN's candidate, Mauricio Funes, was elected with 51% of the vote to be the country's next president. Not only is this a major step for El Salvador, but it is also another step in Latin America's move to the left.

Now many are watching President-elect Funes closely, wondering whether he will join the ranks of the far-left leaders in Latin America like Venezuelan President Chávez and Bolivian President Morales, or follow the lead of moderates like Brazil's Lula.

Funes himself has compared his future policies and leadership style to that of President Lula and has tried to distance himself from Chávez. In an interview yesterday (as it appears in the Washington Post), President-elect Funes said "nothing traumatizing is going to happen here. There will be no confiscation, we will not reverse any privatizations. We will not jeopardize private property. There is no reason at this moment for fear." However, some skeptics believe that the extreme left of the FMLN is going to have more influence over Funes than he says. Regardless, as made clear by editorials from many of the Central American region's major newspapers, many challenges lie ahead for Funes, including a suffering economy and high levels of poverty, inequality and criminal violence.

Major newspapers in the United States reported mainly on the historic nature of the victory and Funes' promise to be a moderate leader. However, some publications had a more pointed stance on the outcome of the elections. Following the cue of some Republican members of Congress, who believe that an FMLN victory is a threat to national security, the Washington Times editorial board was quick to make their (reminiscent of Cold War rhetoric) opinion be known. The editorial argues that a win by the FMLN is a win for "communist terrorists" and it continues by sounding the alarm that "a pro-terrorist political party taking power in El Salvador is a grave development that underscores the need for urgent action in Latin America. Our friends in Colombia are being surrounded, and Mexico is inching toward a social meltdown that Chávez and his cronies will leap to exploit."

The Obama Administration, however, refuses to take this negative stance. Yesterday, State Department spokesman Robert Wood congratulated the people of El Salvador for a "very free, fair, and democratic election." Continuing on to "specifically congratulate Mauricio Funes as the winner of the presidential election" and make clear that the U.S. "look[s] forward to working with the new government of El Salvador, you know, on our bilateral agenda."

Below are links to some of the editorials written about the FMLN victory.

Editorials from major newspapers in Central America

Costa Rica: Change in El Salvador, La Nación

Honduras: El Salvador moves left, El Heraldo

Guatemala: Challenges for Funes, the FMLN and Arena, La Prensa Libre

Nicaragua: Welcome Hope, El Nuevo Herald

U.S. Editorials

A new El Salvador, Los Angeles Times

El Salvador taking a left turn, Washington Times

For more links to articles covering the elections in Salvador, check out the Just the Facts news links.

On Sunday, President Hugo Chávez bolstered his "mandate" in Venezuela when the "Yes" vote triumphed in a referendum to lift constitutional limits on presidential and political terms - despite the failure of a referendum that included the same question only a year ago. This victory resulted in many congratulatory remarks from governments in the region - ranging from a close friend, Bolivian President Evo Morales, to even closer sometime foe, Colombian President Álvaro Uribe - and even led to a statement from the U.S. State Department noting the "civic and participatory spirit of the millions of Venezuelans who exercised their democratic right to vote."

With 54.4% of the population voting 'yes' on the referendum, President Chávez is already preparing for his bid for the renewal of his presidency when the current term ends in 2012. However, in order to maintain current levels of popular support, Chávez must overcome many hurdles - such as high levels of crime, 30% inflation, sagging oil prices, and a sizable opposition. According to an article in the New York Times, Chávez's victory speech showed that he too was ready to tackle these domestic issues, "focusing on more mundane tasks like improving government efficiency and combating violent crime, as if acknowledging the criticism leveled at him during the campaign and the limitations likely to be imposed on any grand plans for the time being." With President Chávez needing to focus on domestic issues for the time being, the question remains how this is going to affect Venezuela's foreign policy, which has been focused on using the country's vast oil wealth, bolstered by high oil prices, to provide grants and loans to other governments in the region.

Below are links to and excerpts from different editorial boards from the United States and throughout Latin America. Other news coverage on the referendum and its consequences can be found in Just the Facts' news archives.

Views from the United States:

New York Times: Venezuelans' Right to Say No (written on Feb. 13, before the election)

"Hugo Chávez apparently doesn't believe Venezuelan voters, who just more than a year ago rejected his bid to eliminate the term limits that are blocking his continued rule. On Sunday, he is giving them another chance. For the sake of Venezuela's democracy, they should again vote no on changing the nation's constitution."

Los Angeles Times: Hugo Chávez's staying power

"Venezuela just took a democratic step closer to dictatorship.... Although the balloting was deemed valid by opposition leaders, who have said they will not contest the results, the victory came about because of Chávez's gross misuse of government funds, government workers and federal facilities for the campaign, and neighborhood enforcers to "persuade" voters to support him.
...
As much as we deplore what looks like the incremental disintegration of democracy in Venezuela, the U.S. must reengage with Chávez. There are many issues of mutual interest and importance to both countries: trade, immigration, economic development, drug policy and a resolution to the leftist guerrilla conflict across the border in Colombia."

The Dallas Morning News: Venezuela's Chávez digs deeper hole

"On Sunday, he used the democratic process to advance an undemocratic goal - his own perpetuation in power. .... This is a dictatorship with a democratic patina. ... Chávez now has more time to dig himself deeper into a hole. Obama would be wise not to interfere with this work in progress."

Views from Latin America:

Ecuador
El Comercio: Hugo Chávez and the future of Venezuela

"The possibility [of being reelected in 2013] will not only depend on Sunday's victory, but instead on what happens during the three years leading up to the elections: different than what has happened until today, the world economic crisis will oblige Chávez to be austere in the management of the money that comes in from petroleum sales. Additionally, he must fight against the grave levels of citizen insecurity, 30% inflation, food insecurity, high foreign investment, high levels of bureaucratic corruption and the 'new Bolivarian bourgeoisie....' If he is to be part of Venezuela's future, Chávez will have to lower the tone of his belligerent discourse and must be rigorous and realistic in his local management and his international position. The responsibility is immense."

Colombia
El Tiempo: Chávez, unlimited

"The dangers of democracy by the way of questions to voters has been widely studied. What is found is that government take advantage of the official apparatus under their control in order to stay in power, while the parties lose their programmatic and collective role. That way, the leader ends up being more worried about their popularity levels than administrating, and the space for dialogue with the opposition is substituted by permanent calls to 'consult the people'."

Argentina
Clarín: Chávez, net triumph and partition

"Chávez has known how to interpret the poorest and most left-behind sectors of a polarized society. At the same time, as is also known to happen in these processes, he has managed democratic values with authoritarianism and disregard. The crossroad of Chávez and the opposition is to find a formula that attempts to resolve and dodge the dangers of the temptations that are opened to the winners of indefinite reelection and the powerless losers."

Honduras
El Heraldo: A decisive day for Venezuela (published on Feb. 15, before the election)

"Although he has publicly denied marxist-leninism and has even spoken of a 'christian-socialism', there is not a doubt that Hugo Chávez has fed class struggles in Venezuela because he thinks that it is the way to maintain the large majority's support, who continue to be poor, with the goal of continuing his 'revolutionary process' through the electoral path."

Views from the United Kingdom:

The Times: Strongman for now

"For such leaders, hostility from Washington is essential to their grip on power. President Obama would be wise to deprive Mr. Chávez of this external bogey. Unlike his predecessor, Mr. Obama should simply ignore Caracas. He should continue buying the oil, but the falling price will soon produce a sense of realism. No further invitations to Moscow to send a warship will protect Mr. Chávez from popular exasperation with a strongman no longer strong enough to deliver."