On Thursday the 17th, Paraguay rejected a military cooperation deal with the United States which would have placed about 500 U.S. military and other personnel in the country. U.S. Ambassador to Asunción Liliana Ayalde said, “We regret the decision but we respect it.”

Given the diplomatic rifts that the U.S.-Colombia base deal has caused in South America, the increase in weapons purchases throughout the region, and the increasingly tense tone of Unasur meetings, the decision is not surprising. President Fernando Lugo said that the round of U.S. exercises scheduled for 2010 was “neither prudent nor convenient at this time and could raise concerns among the other members of the Mercosur and Unasur.”

Unlike many other members of Unasur, Paraguay has consistently denounced the recent increases in Latin American governments’ arms purchases, and has not acquired weapons in the last few years. According to the Paraguayan foreign affairs minister, Hector Lacognate, the Paraguayan position is “pacifist.”

Lacognate maintained that beyond the military dimension, “[w]e have an excellent bilateral agenda with the United States, with more than 30 agreements currently in place.”

Ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya returned to Honduras today, and will give a press conference this afternoon. While initial reports cited his location to be the offices of the United Nations in Tegucigalpa, the Brazilian Embassy has confirmed his presence in their building, which is next door to de facto President Micheletti's private residence.

According to Ximoara Castro, Zelaya's wife, "the President has entered the country to begin a dialogue" with members of the de facto government. Zelaya told Honduran Channel 36 that he was "here for the restoration of democracy, to call for dialogue."

The de facto Micheletti government denies that Zelaya has successfully returned to Honduras. In a press conference at the presidential palace, Micheletti said that "it is not true, Zelaya is in a hotel suite in Nicaragua," but his return has already been confirmed by both the U.S. State Department and the Brazilian Embassy.

News outlets are reporting that between 3,000 and 4,000 Zelaya supporters have gathered outside the main U.N building in Tegucigalpa in order to "protect" Zelaya from arrest, as Micheletti had previously stated that Zelaya would be immediately arrested if he crossed into Honduran territory. There is concern that a confrontation between pro-Zelaya and pro-coup groups or police forces could erupt on the streets. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly noted, "At this point, all I can say is reiterate our almost daily call on both sides to exercise restraint and refrain from ... any activities that could provoke violence."

Update 3:51 pm: According to Zelaya, Secretary General of the Organization of American States José Miguel Insulza will travel to Honduras tomorrow to begin the dialogue between the de facto government and Zelaya.

Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) introduced new legislation - S. 1665: ATPDEA Expansion and Extension Act of 2009 - this week to include Uruguay and Paraguay in the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA). Presently, Ecuador, Colombia and Peru benefit from ATPDEA, which authorizes the President to grant duty-free treatment or reduced tariffs to a wide range of products, with the goal of promoting economic development and providing alternatives to the production of cocaine. (Bolivia has been suspended from eligibility due to its failure to cooperate with U.S. counternarcotics policy).

In April of this year, similar legislation was introduced in both the House and the Senate, which called for the extension of ATPDEA benefits to Paraguay. Senator Lugar's new bill aims to extend benefits to both Paraguay and Uruguay.

The ATPDEA Expansion and Extension Act of 2009 asks for Uruguay's wool-based textiles to be included under ATPDEA's benefits, which currently excludes from duty-free treatment "textiles and apparel articles" that previously have not been deemed eligible. It also asks for a two-year extension of ATPDEA benefits to all eligible countries - moving the current 'expiration date' from December 31, 2009 to December 31, 2012.

Senator Lugar introduced the legislation on Monday, one day before Uruguayan President Tabaré Vásquez made an official visit to the United States.

Yesterday, the White House issued the "Majors List" of narcotics source and transfer countries for 2009. Under the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, the President must submit to Congress an annual report identifying (a) major drug-producing or transit countries and (b) those countries not "cooperating" with U.S. counternarcotics measures and subject to sanctions. Using the "International Narcotics Control Strategy Report" published by the Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) every March, the "Majors List" is compiled each year and presented to the Secretary of State for consideration before being approved by the President and sent to Congress.

This year's list has no surprises or new additions - with all 20 countries on the list already appearing on the 2008 "Majors List." Also similar to last year, Venezuela and Bolivia were cited as having "'failed demonstrably' during the last 12 months to adhere to international counternarcotic agreements and take counternarcotic measures set forth in U.S. law." This is Venezuela's fifth consecutive year on this list, and Bolivia's second.

Designation of a country as having "failed demonstrably" can lead to sanctions, however President Obama issued a waiver "so that the United States may continue to support specific programs to benefit the Bolivian and Venezuelan people." These programs include "civil society programs and small community development programs" in Venezuela and "continued support for agricultural development, exchange programs, small enterprise development, and police training programs" in Bolivia.

Yesterday, we wrote that State Department spokesman Ian Kelly had expressed concern about Venezuela's desire to build up its arsenal. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a very similar statement yesterday during her press conference with Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez.

In response to a question about weapons sales and the possibility of an arms race in the region, Secretary Clinton chose to focus her answer entirely on Venezuela, even though the reporter also used Brazil's recent military agreement with France as an example. According to Secretary Clinton, "[Venezuela] outpace[s] all other countries in South America and certainly raise[s] the question as to whether there is going to be an arms race in the region." As Ian Kelly did in the press briefing, Secretary Clinton emphasized the importance of putting procedures and practices in place "to ensure that the weapons ... are not diverted to insurgent groups or illegal organizations."

Uruguayan President Vásquez also responded to the question, focusing his answer more on how investment in arms can divert attention and investment away from development and fighting poverty and inequality in the region. "The governments of South America [should] decide to devote more money to promote health, to promote education and education to prevent diseases; to spend that money, instead of spending it in weapons."

Below is an excerpt from the joint press conference, citing in full both Secretary Clinton's and President Vasquez's answers to the question on arms transfers in the region.

QUESTION: I was wondering if you could give us your thoughts on what seems to be a growing transfer of arms and possibly even an arms race in the region. We've seen a lot of transfers of technology from Iran to Venezuela. The Brazilians just bought a very big package from the French. And I'm wondering if this is alarming to you.

SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, we have expressed concern about the number of Venezuelan arms purchases. They outpace all other countries in South America and certainly raise the question as to whether there is going to be an arms race in the region. So we urge Venezuela to be transparent in its purchases, clear about its purposes. They should be putting in place procedures and practices to ensure that the weapons that they buy are not diverted to insurgent groups or illegal organizations, like drug trafficking gangs and other criminal cartel

PRESIDENT VAZQUEZ: (Via interpreter) With respect to the arms race, not only is our country worried, but we have already expressed time and again our position against an arms race. We believe that it is quite inconvenient to the region to devote such significant economic resources toward purchasing arms. And - but it's a fact, and we can't deny it, that the countries are buying weapons.

And to make things worse, our region is the region that has the worst distribution of wealth. So with - under those conditions, it is still worse to be devoting those resources to weapons. South America has millions of people living in poverty, and there are thousands of children that die across Latin America and South America because of child diarrhea or diseases that could be prevented.

So because of all these reasons, all that should lead the governments of South America to decide to devote more money to promote health, to promote education and education to prevent diseases; to spend that money, instead of spending it in weapons, spending it in housing, good housing for our people, and to further deepen investment, especially in the field of education.

So we should devote our energies and resources to fight against the real scourges of our societies, that are drug - such as drug trafficking and terrorism. That would be certainly a much better use of our resources.

Yesterday, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly was asked about Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's ambitions to pursue a civilian nuclear program with help from Russia, and whether this has inspired concern within the U.S. government about technology transfers or nuclear transfers between Venezuela and Iran.

According to Kelly, the United States is concerned not only about the civilian nuclear program, but also about Venezuela's desire to build up its arsenal. He stated a U.S. government desire that Venezuela put in place procedures and safeguards to ensure that "these arms are not diverted to any irregular or illegal organizations in the region." Kelly's response alludes to recent reports that Venezuelan anti-tank rocket launchers were recently found in the hands of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), as well as the United States' growing concern about Iran's influence in the region.

Below is the full text of State Department spokesman Kelly's response to the question on Venezuela during yesterday's press briefing at the State Department.

QUESTION: Is there any concern about technology transfers or nuclear transfers on the U.S. part between Iran and Venezuela?

MR. KELLY: The short answer is, to that, yes, we do have concerns. We have concerns in general about Venezuela’s stated desire to increase its arms buildup, which we think poses a serious challenge to stability in the Western Hemisphere. What they are looking to purchase and what they are purchasing outpaces all other countries in South America. And of course, we’re concerned about an arms race in the region.

And we urge Venezuela to be transparent in its purchases and very clear about the purposes of these purchases. And we’re also very concerned that they put in place very clear procedures and safeguards that these – that these arms are not diverted to any irregular or illegal organizations in the region.

...

Venezuela is a signatory of the NPT. It has certain obligations, of course, under the NPT for any civilian nuclear program. And of course, we will be looking closely at this.

CIP Intern Hannah Brodlie compiled this collection of recent reports of friction between governments and the news media throughout Latin America. Concerns about freedom of the press are on the increase. 

• A massive September 10 tax raid on Argentina’s largest newspaper publisher, Grupo Clarín, fueled nationwide controversy over President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's proposed media bill. The “Media Reform Bill” would replace broadcast regulations dating back to 1980 with the stated goal of increasing competition and preventing media monopolies. It would force some of the biggest media groups (especially Clarín) to sell their assets. Critics of the bill insist that the raid and the bill stem from a personal grudge between the government and the newspaper, and argue that the law would allow “direct and indirect government control over media and journalistic content." See this Houston Chronicle article for the troubling details of the increasingly personal fight between Clarín and the Kirchners (the president and her predecessor and husband, Néstor Kirchner).

• In July the Venezuelan government closed 34 radio stations and two small television stations for allegedly failing to comply with regulations, and they’ve opened investigations into more than 200 others. In addition, attacks by pro-government militants on Globovisión, the only strongly anti-Chavez station in the country, have been largely ignored by officials. In fact, Venezuelan prosecutors recently opened a criminal probe into Globovisión to determine whether they were trying to incite rebellion by airing a string of text messages from viewers, some of which called for a coup.

• In Ecuador, television station Telemazonas has also been accused of broadcasting a secret government recording of a meeting President Rafael Correa held in his office. The station's director has said that the participants in the meeting were speaking of “public matters,” referring to how they had passed the constitution through the constituent assembly in 2008. Telemazonas is accused of violating media regulations and broadcasting law for the fourth time, and President Correa has said he will ask for its closure.

• Despite a recent statement from President Álvaro Uribe reiterating the government’s commitment to journalistic freedom in Colombia, the recent discovery that opposition journalists were a major target of years of illegal wiretapping and surveillance from the presidential intelligence service (DAS) suggests otherwise. For example, according to the Foundation for Press Freedom, the number of press freedom violations increased drastically due to the DAS activities, from January to June of 2009 compared with the same period in 2008.

• In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega has also been publicly attacking the media, saying that he considers his critics in the press to be “weapons” of his political enemies. He has called on his party to close ranks against media critics and religious leaders who “generate” opposition. Ortega has said that "the State must act as necessary to regulate the activity of the media." A Ley de Colegio de Periodistas would do just that: establish “ethical” regulations for journalism and introduce conditions for its practice.

• At the end of July, the Special Rapporteur for Freedom of Expression of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights noted, "During this year, at least nine reporters have been killed in the region for reasons that may have been related to their journalistic activity. Three of these reporters were killed in Mexico."

Mexico's El Universal reported last week that the number of deaths by narcoviolence in 2009 surpassed 5,000 on Thursday morning, reaching 5,018 by the end of the day. With narcoviolence-related deaths already surpassing 5,000 in early September, it looks like 2009 is assured to be more violent than 2008 - which ended with 5,600 narcoviolence-related murders.

The article in El Universal breaks down the numbers of narcoviolence-related deaths to show how fast narcoviolence in Mexico is increasing. Here are some of those statistics:

• Under Mexican President Felipe Calderón's government, there have been 13,599 murders related to organized crime;
• The most recent 1,000 narcoviolence-related deaths of 2009 occurred in 41 days (August 1 - September 10);
• During those 41 days, a minimum of 24 crimes/day were reported - or one crime per hour;
• The first 1,000 narcoviolence-related deaths of 2009 occurred in 51 days, the second 1,000 in 59 days, the third 1,000 in 58 days and the fourth 1,000 in 44 days;
• Of the most recent 1,000 deaths, 487 were in Chihuahua, specifically in Ciudad Juárez where the Juárez and Sinaloa cartels fight for control of trafficking routes across the border into the United States;
• In 2009, narcoviolence-related deaths has occurred all over the country, except in Tlaxcala and Yucatán;
• The two most violent days of 2009 were August 17th, with 57 deaths, and September 2nd, with 52 deaths.

If the narcoviolence-related death rate (1,000 deaths/41 days) continues at its current pace, the remaining months of 2009 could add almost 2,750 more deaths to the 5,018 already cited by El Universal.

(This post was written by CIP Associate Abigail Poe.)

Following the June 28th coup in Honduras, the U.S. government did not immediately impose sanctions on the de facto government of Roberto Micheletti. Some aid was suspended, but few other steps were taken, with the argument that moving slowly preserved "leverage" on behalf of President Manuel Zelaya's return. However, after a last OAS mission to Honduras in late August failed to convince the de facto coup government to agree to the terms of the San Jose Accord, the United States has started to implement multiple sanctions.

Below is a list of the sanctions that have been imposed by the United States on the de facto Honduran government to date, including details on the aid that has been officially terminated. In addition to the sanctions listed below, the State Department also released a statement indicating that "at this moment, we would not be able to support the outcome of the scheduled elections" on November 29 in Honduras.

• $11 million in Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) assistance to Honduras has been terminated, along with a hold on $4 million intended for a road project.
• $9.4 million in USAID assistance has been terminated. This includes $8.7 million in development assistance and Economic Support Funds (ESF), which "go mainly toward trade capacity building and support for Honduran ministries of labor and education" and $2.7 million of the Child Survival and Health fund.
• $8.96 million in State Department assistance has been terminated. This is broken into three parts: $6.5 million in Foreign Military Financing, $361,000 in International Military Education and Training and $1.72 million in Global Peacekeeping operations.
• $1.7 million in section 1206 security assistance has been frozen.
• Visas of a few members and supporters of the de facto regime have been revoked.
• The nonimmigrant visa section in the consular section of the embassy in Honduras has been closed to all but emergency cases.

So far, the sanctions and threats to not recognize the results of the November 29th elections have not appeared to soften the Micheletti regime's opposition to the San Jose Accord and the subsequent return of ousted President Manuel Zelaya to power. Instead, Micheletti has expressed that he "is sure that the international community will recognize the regime formed from the coup d'etat on June 28, after the elections take place on November 29th."