Friday, March 5, 2010

Just the Facts Podcast: The week

Adam discusses Chile's use of the military in the earthquake's aftermath, highlights of Secretary Clinton's 6-country trip, charges of terrorist links to Venezuela, the annual State Department Narcotics Report, and narco-corruption in Guatemala's police.

Links to some of the documents mentioned:

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Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Just the Facts Podcast: Extradited Colombian Paramilitaries

Adam interviews Roxana Altholz of the University of California at Berkeley Law School Human Rights Clinic, author of "Truth Behind Bars," a hard-hitting report on 30 Colombian paramilitary leaders' extradition to the United States, which has complicated efforts to win justice for their victims.

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Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Coca cultivation and counter-drug efforts in the Andean Region

Yesterday, the Department of State released its 2010 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report. This annual report submitted to Congress "describes the efforts of key countries to attack all aspects of the international drug trade in Calendar Year 2009."

Volume I of the 2010 report includes new statistics on the coca cultivation and counter-drug efforts in the Andean region. Here are our most up-to-date statistics on the war on drugs in the Andean region. Click on each graphic to see a bigger version.


U.S. estimate of coca cultivation in the Andean region from 1999 to 2008.

Cultivation trends:

  • Coca cultivation in the Andes has changed very little over the past decade.
  • Coca cultivation in Colombia decreased by 28.7% from 2007 to 2008, while the number of hectares of coca cultivation increased in both Peru and Bolivia by 13.8% and 8.5% respectively.
  • The U.S. estimate indicates that coca cultivation in Bolivia increased 9.4% from 2008 to 2009, from 32,000 hectares to 35,000 hectares. The data for Colombia and Peru has yet to be released.
  • UNODC estimate of coca cultivation from 1999 to 2008.

  • The UN Office on Drugs and Crime also measures a decrease from 2007 to 2008 in total coca cultivation in the Andean region, though the number of hectares varies from the U.S. estimate for each country. The UN shows more hectares of coca in Peru and less in Colombia and Bolivia.

  • U.S. estimate of potential pure cocaine production in Colombia, Bolivia and Peru from 1998 to 2008, measured in tons. Again, the United States reports 2009 numbers for Bolivia, but not for Peru or Colombia.

    Production trends:

  • From 1998 to 2008, cocaine production in Colombia, Bolivia and Peru remained little changed. Though the U.S. data shows a significant 39% drop in Colombia's potential pure cocaine production from 2007 to 2008 - from 485 tons to 295 tons. The UN data does not indicate such a drastic drop for Colombia, though the total tonnage for Colombia still decreases 28% from 2007 to 2008.
  • Bolivia's total potential cocaine production increases 50% from 2007 to 2008. The 2010 Strategy Report attributes this increase to more efficient production methods in Bolivia:

    Over the last couple of years, Bolivian CN units, as well as DEA (prior to its departure), have observed a steady increase in the use of the more efficient “Colombian” methods for cocaine production during lab seizures, including use of mechanized coca maceration and solvents, instead of acids for alkaloid extraction.

  • UNODC estimate of cocaine production in Colombia, Bolivia and Peru from 1997 to 2008.


    U.S. statistics on the interdiction rate in Colombia from 1998 to 2009 - measured in both tons of coca paste/base and tons of cocaine seized.

    Interdiction trends:

  • The total amount of cocaine and coca paste/base seized decreased from 2008 to 2009.
  • When the data for 2009 are looked at separately, seizures of coca paste/base increased by 2.2% while seizures of cocaine decreased by 26.8%.

  • The number of hectares of coca eradicated in Colombia from 1998 to 2009 through both manual and aerial eradication.

    Eradication trends:

  • 2009 saw a significant 28% decline in total hectares of coca eradicated.
  • 2009 is the first year the total number of hectares of coca eradicated manually has decreased since 2004. From 2004 to 2008 manual eradication increased from year to year, however from 2008 to 2009 it decreased by 36.8% - from 95,731 hectares to 60,500 hectares.
  • Eradication reached a record high in 2008, with nearly 230,000 hectares of coca eradicated manually or by air. The 2010 Strategy Report credits the aerial and manual eradication operations in 2008 for the decline in pure cocaine production from 2007 to 2008 (as shown in the "Cocaine Production - U.S. estimate" graph above).
  • Saturday, February 27, 2010

    Just the Facts Podcast: The week

    Abigail and Adam discuss the Cancún summit, human rights in Venezuela, reelection in Colombia, and Hillary Clinton's trip to the region next week.

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    Wednesday, February 24, 2010

    Just the Facts Podcast: Recent arms transfers

    Adam reviews recent arms sales from Brazil, Europe, Israel and the United States to several countries throughout the region.

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    Wednesday, February 24, 2010

    The Latin American-Caribbean Unity Summit

    Cancun, Mexico is always regarded as a conference and summit hotspot, but this week it was overtaken by 32 representatives of Latin American and Caribbean countries - 24 of which were heads of state. The Rio Group Summit, the Latin American and Caribbean Summit on Integration and Development, and the Mexico-Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Summit were all held in Cancun over the past few days, and they all convened at the Latin American-Caribbean Unity Summit to discuss the creation of a new regional alliance, among other things.

    Topics that were covered at the Summit included an aid strategy for reconstruction and development in Haiti, the current dispute between Argentina and Great Britain over the Falkland Islands, the creation of a new Latin American and Caribbean unity organization that would rival the Organization of American States, and more. Though not initially planned, other topics such as the spat between Colombian President Álvaro Uribe and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez were thrown into the mix, after the two presidents exchanged harsh words during lunch yesterday.

    New Latin America-Caribbean Alliance

    As the two-day summit came to a close yesterday, Mexican President Felipe Calderón announced that the 32 nations have agreed to create a new regional alliance that will "push for regional integration" and "promote the regional agenda in global meetings." This new alliance is intended to serve as an alternative to the Organization of American States with a slightly different membership - the United States and Canada will not be members, while Cuba will be.

    According to the AFP, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Arturo Valenzuela said that the United States does not see the new group as a problem, and that "This should not be an effort that would replace the OAS." And, during yesterday's State Department press briefing, Assistant Secretary Philip J. Crowley commented on the new alliance.

    We think it's a good thing when countries in the region come together to talk about how they can cooperate more effectively, and this can take place in many regional fora. And virtually all of the countries attending the summit are strong partners of the United States and we are working together with them on a broad range of initiatives. So – and we consider the meeting in Mexico as consistent with our goals for the hemisphere.

    Though this new alliance is being referred to as the Latin American and Caribbean Community, its name, status, and organizational structure will be decided on next year at a meeting in Caracas, Venezuela.

    Argentina:

    Over the past few weeks, tensions have sparked between Great Britain and Argentina over oil drilling rights in the waters surrounding the Falkland Islands (known as Las Malvinas in Argentina). The longstanding sovereignty dispute over the islands intensified earlier this month upon announcement that a British oil rig was arriving to drill offshore for oil.

    Argentine President Cristina Kirchner says London has violated UN resolutions calling on the parties to take no actions that could aggravate their dispute and instituted a decree last week requiring vessels traveling through territorial waters to obtain permission from Buenos Aires. Britain has mostly dismissed the move as sabre-rattling, and the British oil company announced on Monday that it has begun drilling for oil in the territorial waters of the Falkland Islands.

    The Unity Summit of 32 countries backed Argentina's claim that Britain is flouting international law by permitting drilling. According to the Associated Press: "Argentina presented a statement quoting Mexican President Felipe Calderón as saying that 'the heads of state represented here reaffirm their support for the legitimate rights of the republic of Argentina in the sovereignty dispute with Great Britain.'"

    Colombia-Ecuador relations

    Outside of the various summits, Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa and Colombian President Álvaro Uribe held their first official meeting since the two countries cut diplomatic relations in March 2008 (after Colombia bombed a Farc encampment on Ecuadorian territory, resulting in the death of Farc leader Raul Reyes). Official from both countries have been working to restore diplomatic relations, but yesterday's meeting marks an important step forward in the process.

    Prior to the meeting, both governments made statements saying that diplomatic relations would not be restored immediately, as each side still has concerns that need to be addressed. However the meeting between the two presidents demonstrated their will to move the process forward. "Without looking at the past to not repeat it, but looking toward the future and what is best for our countries, the political will to normalize relations between the two countries as soon as possible has been ratified," President Correa said.

    As Colombian Foreign Minister Jaime Bermúdez noted at a press conference yesterday, the next step toward normalizing relations is the implementation of a "commission of reasonable affairs that will cover topics of interest and the concerns of each side."

    Colombia-Venezuela relations

    The face-to-face encounter between President Uribe and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez was not as diplomatic as the meeting between Presidents Uribe and Correa. During lunch on Monday, the two presidents held a heated exchange, in which Uribe told Chávez to "be a man," while Chávez responded with "go to hell," according to various media outlets. The media was not in attendance at the lunch, but reports emerged detailing what was called a "shouting match" between the two presidents. As reported by the BBC, the exchange was as follows:

    "Uribe: Be a man! These issues are meant to be discussed in these forums. You're brave speaking at a distance, but a coward when it comes to talking face to face.

    Chavez: Go to hell!"

    Cuban President Raúl Castro stepped in to stop the verbal spat, noting the irony of the fight at a "unity" summit: "'How is it possible that we're fighting at a summit intended to unite Latin American and Caribbean countries?,'" he asked.

    Later in the day, both President Uribe and President Chávez agreed to an intervention by "friendly" countries to help resolve the diplomatic crisis that has emerged between the two countries. The commission formed to help the two countries includes Argentina, Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Brazil.

    Semana reported that President Chávez noted that "we have the capacity to not throw rocks at each other, because there are factors that alway play to this, to impede unity. It is an old history, the divide and conquer." President Uribe, on the other hand, asked his government's officials, especially Minister of Defense Gabriel Silva, to refrain from making any declarations about Venezuela without first consulting him.

    Friday, February 19, 2010

    Just the Facts Podcast: The week

    Abigail and Adam discuss Colombia-Ecuador relations, arms sales to the FARC, the Haiti rebuilding cost, the Falklands dispute, press freedom, citizen security in Mexico, and upcoming congressional hearings.

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    Wednesday, February 17, 2010

    Mexico's changing drug war strategy

    Over the past three weeks, the debate surrounding the strategy to fight the "war on drugs" in Mexico has resurfaced, leading President Felipe Calderón to admit that the current militarized approach used by his administration must be coupled with social initiatives to be successful. This change in attitude came after 16 teenagers were killed by a group of masked gunman in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico's most violent city located on the U.S.-Mexico border. According to witness' reports, seven SUVs carrying masked gunmen drove up to the house where the teens were celebrating their friend's birthday and stormed the house without warning, shooting at everyone they encountered.

    This change of attitude also coincided with news that the conservative National Action Party (PAN) of President Calderón was considering an alliance with the leftist Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) in an attempt to defeat the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in this summer's upcoming gubernatorial races. Therefore, the decision to implement new social initiatives in the fight against narcotrafficking could be interpreted as the PAN's attempt to extend an olive branch to the more left-leaning PRI.

    The recent attack hit a sore spot for many Mexicans, especially residents of Ciudad Juárez. Since President Calderon deployed the army throughout Mexico to combat narcotrafficking in late 2006, more than 17,000 people have been killed by drug-related violence. The Mexican government often explains the high murder and crime rates in cities such as Ciudad Juárez as the result of gang-on-gang violence, resulting in the criminalization of the victims of the fight against drugs in Mexico. The teens killed on January 31st have not been linked to organized crime or the drug trade, resulting in a highly publicized event that demonstrates the impact of the city's violence on innocent citizens and the failure of the militarized approach to organized crime and drug violence.

    After the shooting, the families of the slain teens immediately demanded justice and blamed President Calderón for failing to prevent the mass murder. Mexico's Congress, dominated by the PRI opposition party, echoed their demands and the country's senators called for government officials in charge of security policy to both explain how this multiple murder could take place with over 5,500 soldiers deployed to the city and rewrite Mexico's counternarcotics strategy. Ciudad Juárez's mayor, José Reyes Ferriz, joined residents in a call for a social initiatives targeting the root of the problem, described by the mayor as "social decomposition" caused by "broken homes" which leaves teens "vulnerable to a gang's plea for membership."

    In the face of increasing criticism, President Calderón admitted that "the deployment and presence of the Army and Federal Police is not enough" to stop the violence in Ciudad Juárez, and he promised to launch new social initiatives aimed to lower crime through "an integral strategy of social recomposition, prevention and treatment for addictions, a search for opportunities for employment and recreation and education for youth."

    Last Thursday, President Calderón visited Ciudad Juárez to meet with some of the slain teens' families and face the criticisms that have resulted from the recent events. In the presence of angry protesters holding signs demanding his resignation, Calderón again admitted that the strategy must change, again promised new social initiatives for the city, and recognized a need for better coordination between the different levels and institutions of the government. "If those deaths... mean anything it is that we need to change after that absurd sacrifice," Calderón told Ciudad Juárez residents.

    The new social initiatives, however, will not replace the military strategy. President Calderón insisted that "The violence (in Ciudad Juarez) is not due to the presence of federal forces.... The presence of the federal forces is due to the violence that was and still is there."

    Over the weekend, 2,000 federal police were deployed to Ciudad Juárez to strengthen the soldiers already in the city and 500 additional agents will soon be deployed to focus on improving intelligence and dismantling the financial structures used by the cartels.

    The social part of the new initiative, revealed yesterday with the name "Todos Somos Juárez, Reconstruyamos Nuestra Ciudad" ("We are all Juárez, We will rebuild our city"), includes an initial investment of $600 million pesos (about $46.5 million U.S. dollars) intended to "restore the social fabric" of the city. According to Mexico's El Universal, plans include allocating around $280 million pesos ($21.7 million USD) to education programs and the construction of new parks and schools, and around $360 million pesos ($28.9 million USD) for the renovation of hospitals and the construction of drug rehabilitation centers, anti-drug centers aimed at youth, and psychological help centers for residents experiencing trauma as a result of the violence in the city.

    Some analysts claim the new plan is too little too late, comparing the announced initiatives to a doctor telling a lung cancer patient that he should stop smoking. Others say the social initiatives are misguided: that Ciudad Juárez does not need health and education programs, but instead needs to tackle deeper social problems such as hunger, victims of violence, and the city's growing population of orphans.

    January 2010 has already been cited as one of Mexico's most violent months in recent years, with 933 organized crime-related deaths. When the United States implemented the Mérida Initiative in 2008 to help Mexico fight organized crime and narcotrafficking, groups including CIP, Amnesty International, LAWG and WOLA, warned that a militarized approach would not solve Mexico's problems, nor would it stop drugs from entering the United States. Instead, strengthening Mexico's police force and judicial system, addressing the military's human rights violations, and focusing on social initiatives were offered as viable programs.

    The Calderón administration appears finally to be admitting that the militarized approach on its own has not worked. The recent events in Mexico can be viewed as an opportunity to reevaluate the war on drugs not only in Mexico, but throughout Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Tuesday, February 16, 2010

    Just the Facts Podcast: Citizen security in Medellín

    Adam talks about the rising crime rate in Medellín, Colombia, the reasons why violence continues to fluctuate, and a controversial effort to negotiate a "non-aggression pact" between criminal gangs.

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    Friday, February 12, 2010

    Just the Facts Podcast: The week

    Abigail and Adam review news from the week: Costa Rica's elections, the Colombian defense minister's visit, re-election in Colombia, and the UNASUR summit in Quito.

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