The Center for Global Development presents a brownbag seminar on
Does U.S. Military Aid Finance Illegal Armed Groups? Evidence from Colombia

Featuring
Oeindrila Dube
Post Doctoral Fellow, Center for Global Development

Moderated by
Michael Clemens
Research Fellow, Center for Global Development

Wednesday, July 29, 2009
12:30pm--2:00pm
Please bring your lunch--drinks provided

at
Center for Global Development
1800 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Third Floor, Washington, DC
*Please bring photo identification*

REGISTER ONLINE

Abstract: This paper examines how US military aid affects political violence and democracy in Colombia. Since military aid is channeled to particular Colombian army brigades operating out of government military bases, we compare how changes in aid affect violence and elections outcomes in municipalities with and without bases. To address potential endogeneity in the timing of aid, we use an instrument based on U.S. military aid to the rest of the world (excluding Latin America). We find that increases in US military lead to differential increases in attacks by paramilitaries (who are aligned with the government), but have no significant effect on attacks by guerillas. The aid shock also results in more paramilitary political assassinations during election periods, but has no significant effect on guerilla assassinations. Finally, increases in aid reduce voter turnout in base municipalities, and these effects are larger in politically contested areas. The results suggest that foreign military aid may strengthen the capacity of armed non-state actors, undermining domestic political institutions.